Feinberg Forecast: A Post-Critics' Awards, Pre-Christmas Look at Oscar Race

Promising Young Woman - Sundance - Publicity - EMBED 2020
'Promising Young Woman' / Courtesy of Sundance

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
Mank (Netflix)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Major Threats
Soul (Pixar)
News of the World (Universal)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)

Possibilities
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
Palm Springs
(Hulu/Neon)
The Invisible Man (Universal)
The Midnight Sky (Netflix)

Long Shots
Let Them All Talk (HBO Max)
On the Rocks (A24/Apple)
Ammonite (Neon)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Cherry
(Apple TV+)
I Carry You With Me (Sony Classics)
Joe Bell (Solstice)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Land (Focus)
Let Him Go (Focus)
The Little Things (Warner Bros.)
Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)
Martin Eden (Kino Lorber)
Our Friend (Gravitas/Roadside)
Palmer (Apple TV+)
Supernova (Bleecker Street)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)
Wild Mountain Thyme (Bleecker Street)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
David Fincher (Mank)
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast

Major Threats
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Regina King (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Paul Greengrass (News of the World)

Possibilities
Florian Zeller (The Father)
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)

Long Shots
Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version)
Pete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast
Steven Soderbergh (Let Them All Talk)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Gabriela Cowperthwaite (Our Friend)
Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Heidi Ewing (I Carry You With Me)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (Joe Bell)
John Lee Hancock (The Little Things)
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Sam Levinson (Malcolm & Marie)
Pietro Marcello (Martin Eden)
Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Cherry)
John Patrick Shanley (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Fisher Stevens (Palmer)
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Robin Wright (Land)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast

Major Threats
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Ben Affleck (The Way Back)
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)

Possibilities
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)

Long Shots
Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield) — podcast
Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)
Peter Gerety (Working Man)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Casey Affleck (Our Friend) — podcast
Kevin Costner (Let Him Go)
Clayne Crawford (The Killing of Two Lovers)
Jamie Dornan (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Armando Espitia (I Carry You With Me)
Colin Firth (Supernova)
Tom Holland (Cherry)
Jude Law (The Nest)
John Magaro (First Cow)
Luca Marinelli (Martin Eden)
Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (Farewell Amor)
Jim Parsons (The Boys in the Band)
Trevante Rhodes (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Justin Timberlake (Palmer)
Mark Wahlberg (Joe Bell)
Denzel Washington (The Little Things) — podcast
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast

Major Threats
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Meryl Streep (The Prom) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) — podcast
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit)

Possibilities
Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) — podcast
Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) — podcast
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast
Yeri Han (Minari)

Long Shots
Rashida Jones (On the Rocks) — podcast
Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs)
Charlize Theron (The Old Guard)
Rosamund Pike (Radioactive) — podcast
Naomi Watts (Penguin Bloom)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)
Haley Bennett (Swallow)
Emily Blunt (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Carrie Coon (The Nest)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Clare Dunne (Herself)
Dakota Johnson (Our Friend)
Diane Lane (Let Him Go)
Sienna Miller (Wander Darkly)
Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot)
Eliza Scanlen (Babyteeth)
Katherine Waterston (The World to Come)
Evan Rachel Wood (Kajillionaire)
Robin Wright (Land)
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Will Patton (Minari)

Possibilities
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Long Shots
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Billy Crystal (Standing Up, Falling Down) — podcast
Brian Dennehy (Driveways)
Lance Henriksen (Falling)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Ryder Allen (Palmer)
Demian Bichir (Land)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
Rami Malek (The Little Things) — podcast
Reid Miller (Joe Bell)
Jesse Plemons (Judas and the Black Messiah) — podcast
Jason Segel (Our Friend) — podcast
Gary Sinise (Joe Bell)
Stanley Tucci (Supernova)
Christopher Walken (Wild Mountain Thyme)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Candice Bergen (Let Them All Talk)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

Possibilities
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast
Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)

Long Shots
Marsha Stephanie Blake (I'm Your Woman)
Swankie (Nomadland)
Linda May (Nomadland)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Ciara Bravo (Cherry)
Connie Britton (Joe Bell)
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Vanessa Kirby (The World to Come)
Natasha Lyonne (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Juno Temple (Palmer)
Vanessa Williams (Bad Hair)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass)

Major Threats
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
(Charlie Kaufman) — podcast
The Midnight Sky
(Mark L. Smith)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
(Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Cohen]

Possibilities
The Life Ahead (Edoardo Ponti)
The Personal History of David Copperfield
(Armando Iannucci)

Long Shots
Shirley
(Sarah Gibbons)
Emma
(Eleanor Catton)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Cherry (Jessica Goldberg & Angela Russo-Otstot)
First Cow
(Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
Let Him Go (Thomas Bezucha)
Martin Eden (Maurizio Braucci)
Our Friend (Brad Ingelsby)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)
Wild Mountain Thyme (John Patrick Shanley)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Promising Young Woman
(Emerald Fennell)
Minari
(Lee Isaac Chung)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)

Major Threats
Mank (Jack Fincher)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
(Eliza Hittman)
Soul
(Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)
Da 5 Bloods
(Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]

Possibilities
Palm Springs (Andy Siara)
On the Rocks
(Sofia Coppola)
The King of Staten Island (Judd Apatow) — podcast

Long Shots
Let Them All Talk
(Deborah Eisenberg)
I'm Your Woman
(Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
Ammonite
(Francis Lee)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Bad Hair (Justin Simien)
The Climb (Michael Angelo Covino & Kyle Marvin)
Herself (Malcolm Campbell & Clare Dunne)
Joe Bell (Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Kajillionaire (Miranda July)
Land (Jesse Chatham & Erin Dignam)
The Little Things (John Lee Hancock)
Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)
Miss Juneteenth (Channing Godfrey Peoples)
Palmer (Cheryl Guerriero)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Time (Amazon)
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of Shortlist
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
The Dissident (Briarcliff) — podcast [Bryan Fogel]
MLK/FBI (IFC)
City Hall (Zipporah) — podcast [Frederick Wiseman]
Boys State (Apple)
On the Record (HBO Max)
The Way I See It (Focus)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
The Human Factor (Sony Classics)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)

Possibilities
Acasa, My Home (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
Totally Under Control (Neon) — podcast [Alex Gibney]
I Am Not Alone
(Netflix)
I Am Greta
(Hulu)
Kingdom of Silence
(Showtime)
The Fight
(Magnolia/Topic)
Athlete A
(Netflix)
John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia/Participant)
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)
Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) — podcast [Ron Howard]

Long Shots
Searching for Mr. Rugoff (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Miss Americana
(Netflix)
Be Water
(ESPN)
Francesco
(still seeking U.S. distribution)
Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) — podcast [Cristina Costantini]
A Secret Love (Netflix)
Circus of Books (Netflix)
Red Penguins (Universal) — podcast [Gabe Polsky]
American Selfie (MTV)
Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and the Band (Magnolia)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)
76 Days
(MTV)
Apocalypse '45
(Discovery)
Assassins
(Greenwich)
Beautiful Something Left Behind
(MTV)
The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend a Broken Heart
(HBO)
Belly of the Beast
(PBS)
Belushi
(Showtime)
Coded Bias
(PBS Independent Lens)
Crock of Gold
(Magnolia)
Desert One
(Greenwich)
Disclosure (Netflix)
The Earth Is Blue as an Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Father Soldier Son (Netflix)
Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Finding Yingying (MTV)
The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Giving Voice (Netflix)
The Go-Go's (Showtime)
Gunda (Neon)
I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)
Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)
Mayor (Film Movement)
Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)
A Most Beautiful Thing (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)
My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)
Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
Notturno (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)
Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rewind (Grizzly Creek)
Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
Softie (Icarus)
Stars and Strife (self-distributed)
The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)
Stray (Magnolia)
A Thousand Cuts (PBS)
'Til Kingdom Come (still seeking U.S. distribution)
To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Transhood (HBO)
Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Viewing Booth (Roco)
Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wild Daze (Cinedigm)
Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
With Drawn Arms (Starz)
Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Official Submissions (alphabetical)
14 Days, 12 Nights
(Canada)
Agnes Joy
(Iceland)
And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)
Another Round (Denmark)
Apples (Greece)
Asia (Israel)
Atlantis (Ukraine)
The Auschwitz Report
(Slovakia)
Beginning
(Georgia)
Blizzard of Souls
(Latvia)
Broken Keys
(Lebanon)
Bulado
(Netherlands)
Causa Justa
(Panama)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
Charter (Sweden)
Collective (Romania)
The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)
Dara of Jasenovac (Serbia)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Emptiness (Ecuador)
The Endless Trench (Spain)
Exile (Kosovo)
Extracurricular (Croatia)
The Father (Bulgaria)
Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)
Heliopolis (Algeria)
Hope (Norway)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Impetigore (Indonesia)
Jallikattu (India)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)
The Last Ones (Estonia)
Leap (China)
The Letter (Kenya)
Lunana a Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Man Standing Next (South Korea)
Mindanao (Philippines)
Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)
The Mole Agent (Chile)
My Little Sister (Switzerland)
Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
Notturno (Italy)
Nova Lituania (Lithuania)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
Open Door (Albania)
Preparations to Be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
River Tales (Luxembourg)
Roh (Malaysia)
Song Without a Name (Peru)
Stories From the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)
A Sun (Taiwan)
Sun Children (Iran)
This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)
Tove (Finland)
True Mothers (Japan)
Two of Us (France)
Vitalina Varela (Portugal)
What We Wanted (Austria)
Willow (North Macedonia)
Working Girls (Belgium)