FEINBERG FORECAST: Can 'Shame' Crack the Major Categories Despite NC-17 Rating?

THR's awards expert Scott Feinberg offers his latest take on the Oscar race.

The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
War Horse (Disney, 12/25, TBA, teaser)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Brothers, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer)
Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, TBA, trailer)
The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
J. Edgar (Warner Brothers, 11/11, R, trailer)
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
Shame (Fox Searchlight, 12/2, NC-17, trailer)

Major Threats
The Ides of March (Sony, 10/14, TBA, trailer)
The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)
The Iron Lady (The Weinstein Company, 12/21, TBA, teaser)
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus Features, 12/9, TBA, trailer)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (Warner Brothers, 7/15, PG-13, trailer)
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
50/50 (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)
Drive (FilmDistrict, 9/16, R, trailer)
We Bought a Zoo (20th Century Fox, 12/23, TBA, trailer)
Young Adult (Paramount, 12/9, TBA, trailer)
Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Super 8 (Paramount, 6/10, PG-13, trailer)
My Week With Marilyn (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, R, trailer)
Carnage (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/16, R, trailer)
In the Land of Blood and Honey (FilmDistrict, 12/23, TBA, TBA)

Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Major Threats
Bennett Miller (Moneyball)
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Steve McQueen (Shame)
George Clooney (The Ides of March)
Phyllida Lloyd (The Iron Lady)
Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin)
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Tomas Alfredson (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Jonathan Levine (50/50)
Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo)
Jason Reitman (Young Adult)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
David Yates (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2)

Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Major Threats
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50)
Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris)
Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Jeremy Irvine (War Horse)
Woody Harrelson (Rampart)
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)
Ryan Gosling (Drive)
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Paul Giamatti (Win Win)
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Anton Yelchin (Like Crazy)
Rhys Ifans (Anonymous)
Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo)
Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method)

Viola Davis (The Help)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Major Threats
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
Michelle Yeoh (The Lady)
Felicity Jones (Like Crazy)
Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre)
Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
Ellen Barkin (Another Happy Day)
Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)
Vera Farmiga (Higher Ground)
Adepero Oduye (Pariah)

Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Major Threats
Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
Christoph Waltz (Carnage) NEW
John C. Reilly (Carnage) NEW
John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
George Clooney (The Ides of March)
Jeffrey Wright (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)
Ezra Miller (We Need to Talk About Kevin)

Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Carey Mulligan (Shame)

Major Threats
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Judi Dench (J. Edgar)
Judy Greer (The Descendants)
Emily Watson (War Horse)
Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
Marion Cotillard (Midnight in Paris)
Naomi Watts (J. Edgar)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Jodie Foster (Carnage) NEW
Kate Winslet (Carnage) NEW
Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo)

Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (War Horse)
Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants)
Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball)
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Major Threats
Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March)
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Hossein Amini (Drive)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In)
Christopher Hampton (A Dangerous Method)
Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (We Bought a Zoo)
James Ellroy, Oren Moverman (Rampart)
John Logan (Coriolanus)

Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Dustin Lance Black (J. Edgar)
Abi Morgan, Steve McQueen (Shame)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Major Threats
Abi Morgan (The Iron Lady)
Will Reiser (50/50)
Diablo Cody (Young Adult)
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (Win Win)
James Ward Byrkit, John Logan, Gore Verbinski (Rango)
Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)
Asghar Farhadi (A Separation)
Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy Mae Marlene)
Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (Like Crazy)
Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter)
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Adrian Hodges (My Week with Marilyn)
J.J. Abrams (Super 8)
Dee Rees (Pariah)

The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
Happy Feet 2 (Warner Brothers, 11/18, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Cars 2 (Disney, 6/24, TBA, trailer)
Arthur Christmas (Sony, 11/23, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, TBA, trailer)
Rio (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked (20th Century Fox, 12/11, TBA, TBA)
Winnie the Pooh (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)
Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
The Smurfs (Sony, 7/29, TBA, trailer)
The Lion of Judah (Animated Family Films, 6/3, TBA, trailer)

The Interrupters (The Cinema Guild, 7/29, TBA, trailer)
Project Nim (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
Buck (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Senna (Producers Distribution Agency, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Better This World (Bullfrog Films, 8/26, TBA, trailer)
Into the Abyss (Sundance Selects, 11/11, TBA, TBA)
Koran by Heart (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Being Elmo: A Puppeteer's Journey (Submarine Deluxe, TBA, trailer)
Bill Cunningham New York (Zeitgeist Films, 3/16, TBA, trailer)
Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
Page One: Inside the New York Times (Magnolia, 6/24, TBA, trailer)
Tabloid (Sundance Selects, 7/15, R, trailer)
Magic Trip (Magnolia, 8/5, TBA, trailer)
Corman's World: Exploits of a Hollywood Rebel (Anchor Bay Films, 10/16, TBA, trailer)
We Were Here (Red Flag Releasing, 9/?, TBA, trailer)
The Rescuers (Menemsha Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975 (Sundance Selects, 9/9, TBA, trailer)
Hot Coffee (HBO Documentaries, 6/27, TBA, trailer)
Pearl Jam Twenty (Abramorama, 9/20, R, trailer)
Bobby Fischer Against the World (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Whale (Paladin, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Bully Project (The Weinstein Company, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Revenge of the Electric Car (Westmidwest Productions, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Bombay Beach
The Carrier
Semper Fi: Always Faithful

A Separation (Iran)
Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon)
Le Havre (Finland)
A Simple Life (Hong Kong)
In Darkness (Poland)
Major Threats
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Declaration of War (France)
Footnote (Israel)
Pina (Germany)
Terra Firma (Italy)
Happy, Happy (Norway)
Sonny Boy (Netherlands)
The Flowers of War (China)
Black Bread (Spain)
Postcard (Japan)
Omar Killed Me (Morocco)
The Turin Horse (Hungary)
Once Upon a Time in Anatolia (Turkey)
Montevideo: Taste of a Dream (Serbia)
Morgen (Romania)