FEINBERG FORECAST: The Most Competitive Oscar Race in Years

THR's awards analyst mulls over the meaning of the Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Movie Award nominations and much more with just over 10 weeks remaining until the 86th Oscars.
Bruce Dern in Alexander Payne's "Nebraska."

Every week until the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst, Scott Feinberg, will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," wherein he presents a summary of developments since the last update that helped to shape this one and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as an acronyms key, scroll to the bottom of this post.

  • Precursors: On Dec. 11, the Screen Actors Guild announced the nominees for its 20th SAG Awards. 12 Years a Slave led the field with four nominations. (Read my full analysis here.) ... On Dec. 12, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced the nominees for its 71st Golden Globe Awards. 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle led the field on the film side with seven noms each. (Read my full analysis here.) ... On Dec. 12, the music branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences released a list of 114 scores from which it will pick the five best original score Oscar nominees. (Notably, the scores of Inside Llewyn Davis and Nebraska were deemed ineligible.) ... On Dec. 12, Omar, Palestine's entry for the best foreign language film Oscar, was named best film at the Asia-Pacific Screen Awards. Other prizes were awarded to the Oscar entries of Bangladesh (Television), China (Back to 1942), Hong Kong (The Grandmaster), Singapore (Ilo Ilo) and South Korea (Juvenile Offender). ... On Dec. 14, the makeup and hairstyling branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences released a list of seven films that have advanced to a Jan. 11 "bake-off" at which its members will pick the three best makeup and hairstyling Oscar nominees. ... On Dec. 16, the music branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences released a list of 75 songs from which it will pick the five best original song Oscar nominees. ... On Dec. 16, the Broadcast Film Critics Association (of which I am a voting member) announced the nominees for its 19th Critics' Choice Movie Awards. 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle led the field with 13 noms each. ... On Dec. 17, the London Film Critics Circle announced the nominees for its 34th awards. 12 Years a Slave led the field with nine noms.
  • Moments in the spotlight: On Dec. 9, THR premiered a CBS Films-produced featurette about the assembly of the ensemble for Inside Llewyn Davis. ... On Dec. 12, the legendary Julie Andrews -- a best actress winner for Mary Poppins (1964), the film that inspired Saving Mr. Banks -- hosted a special screening of the latter film for friends, family and Academy members, during which she offered a ringing endorsement of it that THR exclusively captured on camera. (Disney is employing nostalgia to boost its awards campaigns for both Banks and Frozen, its primary contender in the best animated feature race.) ... On Dec. 12, CBS Films and Showtime hosted the premiere of Another Day, Another Time: Celebrating the Music of Inside Llewyn Davis, the doc of the New York folk music concert of the same title that was held in October to promote Inside Llewyn Davis. The film's Oscar Issac, music coordinator T Bone Burnett and legendary singer Joan Baez were all on hand. ... On Dec. 15, the New York Times Magazine featured a terrific Q&A with American Hustle's co-writer/director David O. Russell, moderated by the great Neal Gabler. ... On Dec. 15, American Hustle had its official screening at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in Beverly Hills, followed by a Q&A -- moderated by yours truly -- with co-writer/director Russell, actress Amy Adams, producer Charles Roven, costume designer Michael Wilkinson and film editor Jay Cassidy. I'm told that the member turnout was among the highest for any screening this year. ... On Dec. 16, Tom Freston hosted a RADiUS-TWC cocktail party for 20 Feet from Stardom at the Beverly Hills Hotel's Polo Lounge in Beverly Hills. Merry Clayton, one of the subjects of the Oscar short-listed documentary, performed. ... On Dec. 16, William Friedkin and Brett Morgen hosted a Sony Pictures Classics screening of the Oscar short-listed doc Tim's Vermeer at the ICM screening room in Century City, followed by a reception with director Teller, producer Penn Jillette and subject Tim Jenison. ... On Dec. 17, Denzel Washington and The Original Freedom Riders hosted a Weinstein Co. screening of Lee Daniels' The Butler at the Academy in Beverly Hills, followed by a Q&A with director Lee Daniels; actors Cuba Gooding, Jr., Terrence Howard, Elijah Kelley, David Oyelowo and Jesse Williams; costume designer Ruth Carter; producer Pam Williams; and subject Rev. James Lawson. ... On Dec. 17, Warner Bros. hosted a dinner and reception for Gravity at Lucques in Los Angeles, at which co-writer/director Alfonso Cuaron, co-writer Jonas Cuaron and actress Sandra Bullock were joined by numerous members of the Academy, including Diane Baker and Jon Voight. ... On Dec. 17, Captain Phillips' supporting actor Barkhad Abdi appeared as a guest on Conan.
  • Announcements: On Dec. 9, the American Film Institute revealed its jury's picks for the top 10 films and TV shows of 2013. ... On Dec. 9, the Palm Springs International Film Festival announced that it will present its Breakthrough Performance Award to 12 Years a Slave's supporting actress Lupita Nyong'o and its Frederick Loewe Award for Composing to Saving Mr. Banks' composer Thomas Newman (his second time winning the prize) on Jan. 4, during the fest's 25th edition. ... On Dec. 13, the Producers Guild of America announced that it will present its Stanley Kramer Award to Fruitvale Station's writer/director Ryan Coogler at the 25th PGA Awards on Jan. 19. The award was established in 2002 "to honor a production, producer or other individual whose achievement or contribution illuminates and raises public awareness of important social issues." ... On Dec. 15, the Academy revealed its membership numbers heading into voting for the 86th Oscars. Thanks to the elimination of quotas on new members and to the addition of a casting directors branch, the group has over 6,000 active members for the first time in its 86-year history. ... On Dec. 16, the Palm Springs International Film Festival announced that it will present its Chairman's Award to Captain Phillips' lead actor/Saving Mr. Banks' supporting actor Tom Hanks on Jan. 4, during the fest's 25th edition. ... On Dec. 17, the Santa Barbara International Film Festival announced that it will present its American Riviera Award to All Is Lost's lead actor Robert Redford on Feb. 7, during the fest's 29th edition. ... On Dec. 17, Bravo's Inside the Actors Studio revealed that Nebraska's lead actor Bruce Dern and his daughter, the actress Laura Dern, will appear on an episode that will air on Dec. 26, marking the first time in the Emmy-winning show's history that a father and daughter shared the stage in conversation with James Lipton.
  • Potpourri: On Dec. 9, I offered an in-depth look at who was helped and who was not by the barrage of critics and awards group awards that preceded the SAG and Golden Globe nominations. ... On Dec. 11, I posted my interview with Enough Said's lead actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus, who reflected on her legendary TV career and relatively recent entry into the world of film, to great acclaim. ... On Dec. 12, I penned a column laying out why the people who received both SAG and Globe noms are not guaranteed Oscar noms and why people who received neither SAG nor Globe noms are not guaranteed Oscar snubs. ... On Dec. 12, I outlined the pros and cons of being an early frontrunner versus a late arrival in the Oscar race. ... On Dec. 16, I shared the story of the first female vice president of production at a Hollywood studio, Marcia Nasatir, as told to me by the 87-year-old for THR's recent "Women in Entertainment" special issue. ... On Dec. 17, I provided never-before-reported details about the nature of the legendary feud between the sisters/Oscar-winning actresses Joan Fontaine (who died on Dec. 15) and Olivia de Havilland.

Without further ado, here is the latest forecast …

12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer) AFI, BSFC, TIFF, IFP, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer) AFI, LAFCA (tie), HFPA, BFCA
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 12/25, R, trailer) AFI, HFPA, BFCA
American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer) AFI, NYFCC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, PG-13, trailer) AFI, HFPA, BFCA
Saving Mr. Banks
(Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer) AFI
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer) AFI, IFP, HFPA, BFCA, FI
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer) SAG, BFCA
Her (Warner Bros., 12/18, TBA, trailer) AFI, NBR, LAFCA (tie), HFPA, BFCA
Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, R, trailer) AFI, HFPA, BFCA, FI
Major Threats

Lee Daniels' The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer) SAG
Fruitvale Station (The Weinstein Co., 7/12, R, trailer) AFI, SUN
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/26, PG-13, trailer)
Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions, 10/18, PG-13, trailer) FI
August: Osage County (The Weinstein Co., 11/8, TBA, trailer) SAG
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (The Weinstein Co., 11/29, PG-13, trailer)
Enough Said (Fox Searchlight, 9/20, PG-13, trailer)
Rush (Universal, 9/27, R, trailer) HFPA
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox, 11/15, PG-13, trailer)
Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/24, R, trailer) IFP
Prisoners (Warner Bros., 9/20, R, trailer)
Lone Survivor (Universal, 12/27, R, trailer)
Long Shots
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox, 12/25, PG, trailer)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features, 3/29, R, trailer)
Mud (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions, 4/26, PG-13, trailer)
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros., 5/10, PG-13, trailer)

Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects, 10/25, NC-17, trailer) CAN
Frances Ha (IFC Films, 5/17, R, trailer) FI

Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) LAFCA, NYFCO, HFPA, BFCA
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, BFCA, FI
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) BFCA
David O. Russell (American Hustle) HFPA
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) HFPA, BFCA
Major Threats
Alexander Payne (Nebraska) HFPA, FI

Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Spike Jonze (Her) NBR, BFCA
Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Lee Daniels (Lee Daniels' The Butler) HFA
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)
Stephen Frears (Philomena)

John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Nicole Holofcener (Enough Said)
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost) FI
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Long Shots
Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners)
Peter Berg (Lone Survivor)

Ron Howard (Rush)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Baz Luhrmann (The Great Gatsby)

Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) IFP, HFA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) BSFC, NYFCO, IFP, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Robert Redford (All Is Lost) NYFCC, IFP, HFPA, BFCA, FI
Bruce Dern (Nebraska) NBR, LAFCA, CAN, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Hanks (Captain Phillips) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Major Threats
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) HFPA
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler) SAG 
Christian Bale (American Hustle)  HFPA, BFCA
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis) IFP, HFPA, FI
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station) FI
Joaquin Phoenix (Her) HFPA
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) HFPA
Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
Long Shots
Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Isaiah Washington (Blue Caprice)

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) LAFCA (tie), NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, IFP, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Sandra Bullock (Gravity) HFA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks) NBR, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Judi Dench (Philomena) HFPA, SAG, BFCA

Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) HFPA ,  SAG, BFCA
Major Threats
Amy Adams (American Hustle) HFPA
Brie Larson (Short Term 12) IFP, BFCA, FI
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said) HFPA
Kate Winslet (Labor Day) HFPA
Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color) LAFCA (tie)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight) HFPA, FI
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha) HFPA
Berenice Bejo (The Past) CAN
Long Shots
Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now) IFP, FI
Sophie Nelisse (The Book Thief)
Scarlett Johansson (Don Jon)

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers ClubLAFCA (tie), NYFCC, NYFCO, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle) HFPA, BFCA
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)

Major Threats
Daniel Bruhl (Rush) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
James Gandolfini (Enough Said) BSFC, SAG, BFCA, FI
Will Forte (Nebraska) NBR , FI
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
George Clooney (Gravity)

Steve Coogan (Philomena)
Harrison Ford (42)
Chris Cooper (August: Osage County)
John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)

James Franco (Spring Breakers) LAFCA (tie)
Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)

Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Long Shots
Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
David Oyelowo (Lee Daniels' The Butler)

Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
Bobby Cannavale (Blue Jasmine)
Andrew Dice Clay (Blue Jasmine)

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) LAFCA, NYFCO, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) NYFCC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler) SAG
June Squibb (Nebraska) BSFC
Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)

Major Threats
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) HFA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) HFPA ,  FI
Scarlett Johansson (Her) BFCA
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station) NBR
Naomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Margot Robbie (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
Melonie Diaz (Fruitvale Station) FI
Long Shots

Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)
Melissa Leo (Prisoners)
Lea Seydoux (Blue Is the Warmest Color)

12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) HFPA, BFCA, FI
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter) NBR, BFCA
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater) LAFCA
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray) BFCA
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope) HFPA, BFCA
Major Threats
August: Osage County (Tracy Letts) BFCA
The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber) FI
The Book Thief (Michael Petroni)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (William Nicholson)
Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)

Long Shots
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
(Steve Conrad)
Labor Day (Jason Reitman)

American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer) NYFCC, HFPA, BFCA
Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen) NBR, BFCA
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) BFCA, FI
Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Major Threats
Nebraska (Bob Nelson) HFPA, BFCA
Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (Danny Strong)
Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener) BSFC, FI
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron)

All Is Lost (J.C. Chandor)
Short Term 12 (Destin Daniel Cretton)
The Way Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)
Prisoners (Aaron Guzkowski)
Frozen (Jennifer Lee, Shane Morris)
Long Shots
Rush (Peter Morgan)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, Darius Marder)
Mud (Jeff Nichols)
Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
The Past (Asghar Farhadi)

Frozen (Disney, 11/27, G, trailer) HFPA, BFCA, IAFS
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation, 3/22, PG, trailer) HFPA, BFCA, IAFS
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili, 11/8, PG-13, trailer) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, BFCA, IAFS
Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer) HFPA, BFCA, IAFS
Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer) HFA, BFCA, IAFS
Major Threats
Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer) LAFCA, IAFS
A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer) IAFS
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, PG, trailer)
Epic (20th Century Fox, 5/24, PG, trailer)
Free Birds (Relativity Media, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
Turbo (DreamWorks, 7/19, PG, trailer)
Khumba (Millennium Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Planes (Disney, 8/9, PG, trailer)
The Smurfs 2 (Sony, 7/31, PG, trailer)
The Legend of Sarila (Phase 4 Films, TBA, TBA,
Long Shots
Rio: 2096 A Story of Love and Fury (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Fake (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)
O Apóstolo (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie – Rebellion (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)

The Square (Noujaim Films/Netflix Originals/Participant, 10/25, NR, TBA) IDA, FI
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer) IFP, EFA, NYFCO, BSFC, IDA, BFCA, FI, CEH
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer) IDA, BFCA
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer) CEH
Tim's Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer) BFCA
Major Threats
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer) NBR, LAFCA, NYFCC, IDA, BFCA, CEH
20 Feet From Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, FI
The Crash Reel (Phase 4 Films, 7/5, TBA, trailer) IFP
Life According to Sam (still seeking U.S. distribution)

God Loves Uganda (Variance Films, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Which Way Is the Front Line from Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington (HBO Films, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer (HBO Films, TBA, TBA, TBA) BIFA
The Armstrong Lie (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)

First Cousin Once Removed (HBO Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer) IFP
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer)

Iran (The Past) NBR, HFPA, BFCA
Italy (The Great Beauty) EFA, BFCA, FI
Denmark (The Hunt) HFPA, BFCA, FI
United Kingdom (Metro Manila) BIFA
Israel (Bethlehem)

Major Threats
Saudi Arabia (Wadjda)
Palestine (Omar)
France (Renoir)
Turkey (The Butterfly's Dream)
Australia (The Rocket)
Morocco (Horses of God)
China (Back to 1942)
Russia (Stalingrad)
Poland (Walesa)
Chile (Gloria) FI
Georgia (In Bloom)
Hong Kong (The Grandmaster)
Mexico (Heli)
Belgium (The Broken Circle Breakdown)
Others, listed alphabetically
Afghanistan (Wajma)
Albania (Agon)
Argentina (Wakolda)
Austria (The Wall)
Azerbaijan (Steppe Man)

Bangladesh (Television)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker)
Brazil (Neighboring Sounds)
Bulgaria (The Color of Chameleon)
Cambodia (The Missing Picture)
Canada (Gabrielle)

Chad (GriGris)
Colombia (La Playa DC)
Croatia (Halima's Path)
Czech Republic (The Don Juans)

Dominican Republic (Quien Manda?)
Ecuador (The Porcelain Horse)
Egypt (Winter of Discontent)
Estonia (Free Range)
Finland (The Disciple)
Germany (Two Lives)
Greece (Boy Eating the Bird's Food)
Hungary (The Notebook)
Iceland (Of Horses and Men)
India (The Good Road)
Indonesia (Sang Kiai)

Japan (The Great Passage)
Kazakhstan (The Old Man)
Latvia (Mother I Love You)
Lebanon (Blind Intersections)
Lithuania (Conversations on Serious Topics)
Luxembourg (Blind Spots)

Moldova (All God's Children)
Montenegro (Ace of Spades -- Bad Destiny)

Nepal (Soongava: Dance of the Orchids)
Netherlands (Borgman)
New Zealand (White Lies)
Norway (I Am Yours)
Pakistan (Zinda Bhaag)
Peru (The Cleaner)
Philippines (Transit)
Portugal (Lines of Wellington)
Romania (Child's Pose)
Serbia (Circles)
Singapore (Ilo Ilo)
Slovak Republic (My Dog Killer)
Slovenia (Class Enemy)
South Africa (Four Corners)
South Korea (Juvenile Offender)
Spain (15 Years Plus a Day)
Sweden (Eat Sleep Die)
Switzerland (More Than Honey)
Taiwan (Soul)
Thailand (Countdown)
Ukraine (Parajanov)
Uruguay (Anina)
Venezuela (Breach in the Silence)

Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki) LAFCA, BSFC, BFCA, IPA
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel) NYFCC
12 Years a Slave (Sean Bobbitt) BFCA, FI, IPA
Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael) BFCA
The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)

Major Threats
Prisoners (Roger Deakins) BFCA, IPA
Her (Hoyte von Hoytema)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Rodrigo Prieto)
Captain Phillips (Barry Ackroyd)
All Is Lost (Frank G. DeMarco) FI
Rush (Anthony Dod Mantle) IPA
The Great Gatsby (Simon Duggan)
To the Wonder (Emmanuel Lubezki)
American Hustle (Linus Sandgren)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Stuart Dryburgh) IPA
Long Shots
Frances Ha (Sam Levy)

Saving Mr. Banks (John Schwartzman)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Andrew Lesnie)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (Andrew Dunn)
Spring Breakers (Benoit Debie) FI

American Hustle BFCA
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The Lone Ranger

Major Threats
The Great Gatsby
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Dallas Buyers Club
Hansel & Gretel Witch Hunters

Gravity (Steven Price) HFPA, BFCA
12 Years a Slave (Hans Zimmer) HFPA, BFCA
The Book Thief (John Williams) HFPA
Saving Mr. Banks
(Thomas Newman) BFCA

Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)

Major Threats
Monsters University (Randy Newman)
All Is Lost (Alexander Ebert) HFPA
Rush (Hans Zimmer)
Captain Phillips (Henry Jackman)
Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett) BFCA
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (Alex Heffes) HFPA
The Croods (Alan Silvestri)
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (James Newton Howard)
42 (Mark Isham)
August: Osage County (Gustavo Santaolalla)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Howard Shore)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (Rodrigo Leao)
Long Shots
The Lone Ranger (Hans Zimmer)
Oz: The Great and Powerful (Danny Elfman)
Star Trek Into Darkness (Michael Giacchino)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Theodore Shapiro)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Mike Patton)
The Great Gatsby (Craig Armstrong)

"Let It Go" (Frozen) HFPA, BFCA
"So You Know What It's Like" (Short Term 12)
"Young and Beautiful" (The Great Gatsby) BFCA
"Happy" (Despicable Me 2) BFCA
"I See Fire" (The Hobbit: the Desolation of Smaug)
Major Threats
"Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) HFPA, BFCA
"Unfinished Songs" (Unfinished Song)
"In the Middle of the Night" (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
"The Moon Song" (Her)

"Desperation" (20 Feet from Stardom)
"Atlas" (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire) HFPA, BFCA
"Rise Up" (Epic)
"Last Mile Home" (August: Osage County)

Long Shots
"Sweeter Than Fiction" (One Chance) HFPA
"Amen" (All Is Lost)
"A Little Party Never Killed Nobody" (The Great Gatsby)

Gravity BFCA
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug BFCA
World War Z
Major Threats
Star Trek Into Darkness BFCA
Pacific Rim BFCA
The Lone Ranger
Iron Man 3 BFCA
Thor: The Dark World

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among many other surprises.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).


Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 64th Eddie Awards

ADG = 18th Art Directors Guild Awards

AFI = 14th American Film Institute Awards

ASC = 28th American Society of Cinematographers Awards

BAFTA = 67th British Academy Film Awards

BFCA = 19th Critics' Choice Movie Awards

BSFC = 34th Boston Society of Film Critics Awards

BIFA = 16th British Independent Film Awards

CAN = 66th Cannes Film Festival

CAS = 50th Cinema Audio Society Awards

CDG = 16th Costume Design Guild Awards

CEH = 7th Cinema Eye Honors

DCAC = 12th D.C. Area Film Critics Awards

DGA = 66th Directors Guild of America Awards

EFA = 26th European Film Awards

FI = 29th Independent Spirit Awards

HFA = 17th Hollywood Film Awards

HFPA = 71st Golden Globe Awards

IAFS = 41st Annie Awards

IDA = 29th International Documentary Association Awards

IFP = 23rd Gotham Independent Film Awards

IPA = 18th Satellite Awards

LAFCA = 39th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards

MPSE = 61st Golden Reel Awards

NBR = 85th National Board of Review Awards

NSFC = 48th National Society of Film Critics Awards

NYFCC = 79th New York Film Critics Circle Awards

NYFCO = 13th New York Film Critics Online Awards

PGA = 25th Producers Guild of America Awards

SAG = 20th Screen Actors Guild Awards

SUN = 29th Sundance Film Festival

TIFF = 38th Toronto International Film Festival

USC = 26th USC Scripter Awards

VES = 12th Visual Effects Society Awards

WGA = 66th Writers Guild of America Awards

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg