Feinberg Forecast: First Post-Golden Globe and SAG Noms Reassessment

HILLBILLY ELEGY
Lacey Terrell / Netflix

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Mank (Netflix)
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)

Major Threats
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Soul (Pixar)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
News of the World (Universal)

Possibilities
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn)
Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)

Long Shots
First Cow (A24)
Cherry (Apple TV+)
The Midnight Sky (Netflix)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
David Fincher (Mank)

Major Threats
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Florian Zeller (The Father)
Regina King (One Night in Miami) — podcast

Possibilities
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Paul Greengrass (News of the World) — podcast

Long Shots
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Kelly Reichardt (First Cow)
Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Cherry)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast

Major Threats
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast
Ben Affleck (The Way Back) — podcast
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast

Possibilities
Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Long Shots
Tom Holland (Cherry)
Jude Law (The Nest)
Kevin Costner (Let Him Go)
John Magaro (First Cow)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast

Major Threats
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie)
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) — podcast
Meryl Streep (The Prom) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) — podcast

Possibilities
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]
Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot) — podcast
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)
Yeri Han (Minari)
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast

Long Shots
Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) — podcast
Anya Taylor-Joy (Emma)
Diane Lane (Let Him Go)
Robin Wright (Land)
Carrie Coon (The Nest)
Clare Dunne (Herself)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)

Possibilities
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast

Long Shots
Will Patton (Minari)
Stanley Tucci (Supernova)
Demian Bichir (Land)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)

Possibilities
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Long Shots
Priyanka Chopra-Jonas (The White Tiger)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast
Ciara Bravo (Cherry)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass) — podcast [Greengrass]

Major Threats
The Life Ahead
(Ugo Chiti & Edoardo Ponti) — podcast [Ponti]
The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Cohen]
First Cow (Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)

Possibilities
The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Armando Iannucci)
Emma (Eleanor Catton)
Let Him Go (Thomas Bezucha)

Long Shots
I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) — podcast
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
(Suzan-Lori Parks)
Shirley (Sarah Gibbons)
Cherry (Jessica Goldberg & Angela Russo-Otstot)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Minari
(Lee Isaac Chung)
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
Mank (Jack Fincher)

Major Threats
Da 5 Bloods
(Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]
Soul
(Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Palm Springs (Andy Siara)

Possibilities
On the Rocks (Sofia Coppola)
The Forty-Year-Old Version
(Radha Blank)
Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)
Another Round (Tobias Lindholm & Thomas Vinterberg)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

Long Shots
Miss Juneteenth
(Channing Godfrey Peoples)
I'm Your Woman
(Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
Ammonite
(Francis Lee)
Herself (Malcolm Campbell & Clare Dunne)
Land (Jesse Chatham & Erin Dignam)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Time (Amazon)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of Shortlist
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
The Dissident (Briarcliff) — podcast [Bryan Fogel]
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
76 Days (MTV)
City Hall (Zipporah) — podcast [Frederick Wiseman]
Boys State (Apple)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
MLK/FBI (IFC)
On the Record (HBO Max)

Possibilities
The Way I See It
(Focus)
Notturno
(Super LTD)
Acasa, My Home
(Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
John Lewis: Good Trouble
(Magnolia/Participant)
Totally Under Control
(Neon) — podcast [Alex Gibney]
All In: The Fight for Democracy
(Amazon)
The Human Factor
(Sony Classics)
I Am Greta
(Hulu)
Kingdom of Silence
(Showtime)
The Fight
(Magnolia/Topic)
Athlete A
(Netflix)
Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) — podcast [Ron Howard]

Long Shots
Be Water (ESPN)
Giving Voice
(Netflix)
I Am Not Alone
(self-distributed)
Searching for Mr. Rugoff
(still seeking U.S. distribution)
Miss Americana
(Netflix)
Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)
Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) — podcast [Cristina Costantini]
A Secret Love (Netflix)
Circus of Books (Netflix)

Still to See
40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)
Apocalypse '45
(Discovery)
Assassins
(Greenwich)
Babenco: Tell Me When I Die
(still seeking U.S. distribution)
Beautiful Something Left Behind
(MTV)
Belly of the Beast
(PBS)
Belushi
(Showtime)
Coded Bias
(PBS Independent Lens)
Crock of Gold
(Magnolia)
The Crying Steppe
(Kazakhstan)
Desert One
(Greenwich)
Disclosure (Netflix)
The Earth Is Blue as an Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Father Soldier Son (Netflix)
Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Finding Yingying (MTV)
Fireball: Visitor from Darker Worlds (Apple TV+)
The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Go-Go's (Showtime)
Gunda (Neon)
I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)
Mayor (Film Movement)
Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)
A Most Beautiful Thing (Peacock)
Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)
My People (still seeking U.S. distribution)
My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)
Napoli Eden (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Topic)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)
Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rewind (Grizzly Creek)
Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
Softie (Icarus)
Stars and Strife (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)
Stray (Magnolia)
A Thousand Cuts (PBS)
'Til Kingdom Come (Abramorama)
To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Transhood (HBO)
Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Viewing Booth (Roco)
Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wild Daze (Cinedigm)
Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
With Drawn Arms (Starz)
Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Two of Us (France)
A Sun (Taiwan)

Rest of Shortlist
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Night of the Kings
(Ivory Coast)
La Llorona
(Guatemala)
The Mole Agent
(Chile)
My Little Sister
(Switzerland)
Apples
(Greece)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
Notturno (Italy)
Hope (Norway)

Other Official Submissions (alphabetical)
14 Days, 12 Nights
(Canada)
Agnes Joy
(Iceland)
And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)
Arracht (Ireland)
Asia (Israel)
Atlantis (Ukraine)
The Auschwitz Report
(Slovakia)
Babenco: Tell Me When I Die
(Brazil)
Beginning
(Georgia)
Better Days
(Hong Kong)
Blizzard of Souls
(Latvia)
Broken Keys
(Lebanon)
Bulado
(Netherlands)
Causa Justa
(Panama)
Charter (Sweden)
The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)
Dara of Jasenovac (Serbia)
Emptiness (Ecuador)
The Endless Trench (Spain)
Exile (Kosovo)
Extracurricular (Croatia)
The Father (Bulgaria)
Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)
Heliopolis (Algeria)
Impetigore (Indonesia)
Jallikattu (India)
Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)
The Last Ones (Estonia)
Leap (China)
The Letter (Kenya)
Lunana a Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Man Standing Next (South Korea)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Mindanao (Philippines)
Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)
Nafi's Father (Senegal)
Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)
Nova Lituania (Lithuania)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
Open Door (Albania)
Preparations to Be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)
River Tales (Luxembourg)
Roh (Malaysia)
The Sleepwalkers (Argentina)
Song Without a Name (Peru)
Songs of Solomon (Armenia)
Stories From the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)
Sun Children (Iran)
This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)
Tove (Finland)
True Mothers (Japan)
Vitalina Varela (Portugal)
What We Wanted (Austria)
Willow (North Macedonia)
Working Girls (Belgium)
You Will Die at 20 (Sudan)