FEINBERG FORECAST: How 'American Hustle' Changed the Field

American Hustle Film Still - H 2013
Columbia Pictures

American Hustle Film Still - H 2013

Every week until the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst, Scott Feinberg, will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," wherein he presents a summary of developments since the last update that helped to shape this one and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.

  • Comings and goings: Sony's American Hustle screened for journalists for the first time on Nov. 24 -- followed by a Q&A with writer-director David O. Russell, lead actress Amy Adams, supporting actor Jeremy Renner, supporting actress Elisabeth Rohm, film editor Jay Cassidy, costume designer Michael Wilkinson and casting director Mary Vernieu -- and 25 (reviews are embargoed until Dec. 4), leaving Paramount's The Wolf of Wall Street and Warner Bros.' The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug as the only awards hopefuls that have yet to be unveiled. The general consensus among pundits, with which I agree, is that Hustle is immensely entertaining, features terrific performances across the board (led by supporting actress Jennifer Lawrence, who steals every scene in which she appears) and should score a bunch of Oscar and Globe noms, but is ultimately a light caper -- sort of a higher-brow Oceans 11 -- and may lack the gravitas necessary to pull off any major wins. ... Her's supporting actress Scarlett Johansson has been deemed ineligible by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association for Golden Globes consideration for her performance in the film, ostensibly because it features only her voice, not her body.

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  • Box office: As expected, the debut of Lionsgate's The Hunger Games: Catching Fire easily won the weekend box office, raking in a November-record $158.1 million -- the sixth-biggest opening ever and third-biggest ever for a 2D-only film. (This only further boosts the standing of the aforementioned Lawrence, who is also this film's lead actress, in the supporting actress race for Hustle.) Far behind were Disney's third-weekender Thor: The Dark World and Universal's second-weekender The Best Man Holiday, which grossed $14.2 million and $12.5 million, respectively. None of the above are expected to factor into this year's awards race in any way.
  • Precursors: Film Independent announced the nominees for the 29th Independent Spirit Awards on Nov. 26. The nominees included the presumptive frontrunner for every major Oscar category. ... The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' Short Films and Feature Animation Branch Reviewing Committee has whittled down a list of 120 live-action shorts to a shortlist of just 10from which five films will ultimately be chosen, through a series of screenings in Dec., to receive Oscar nominations. Notably, Gravity co-screenwriter Jonas Cuaron's companion short to that film, Aningaaq, is not among the finalists. ... On Nov. 26, the Producers Guild of America announced the five nominees for its best documentary PGA Award, which will be handed out on Jan. 19. The nominees are A Place at the Table; Far Out Isn't Far Enough: The Tomi Ungerer Story; Life According to Sam; We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks; and Which Way Is the Front Line from Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington. All five were among the 151 docs from which the Academy's doc branch recently determined its best documentary feature Oscar shortlist, which will be revealed in early December. ... The Oscar shortlisted animated short Room on the Broom was recognized with the Children's BAFTA for Animation at the Children's BAFTA Awards on Nov. 24.

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  • Moments in the spotlight: Entertainment Weekly selected Sandra Bullock, the lead actress of the hit drama Gravity and hit comedy The Heat, as its Entertainer of the Year, making her the first person to ever earn that distinction more than once. (She was previously highlighted by EW in 2009, when she starred in the hit drama The Blind Side and hit comedy The Proposal.) ... GQ selected 12 Years a Slave director Steve McQueen as Auteur of the Year and chose Enough Said's James Gandolfini, who died of a heart attack earlier this year, to appear on the cover of its Men of the Year Issue. ... On Nov. 22, Pharrell Williams released to the Internet a completely unique music video for his Despicable Me 2 best original song contender, "Happy," featuring 24 hours of continuous performances of the song by himself (at the top of each hour) and 400 others (including a few celebrities). ... On Nov. 23, Magnolia hosted a special screening of The Hunt, Denmark's entry for the best foreign language film Oscar, at the headquarters of UTA, followed by a reception with director Thomas Vinterberg and star Mads Mikkelsen. ... Last Vegas' supporting actress Mary Steenburgen performed her Oscar-contending original song from the film, "Cup of Trouble," at a Nov. 24 party celebrating the release of the film's soundtrack. Ted Danson, Laura Dern and Rooney Mara were among those in attendance. ... Out of the Furnace's writer-director Scott Cooper presented his film's supporting actor/Lee Daniels' The Butler's lead actor Forest Whitaker with the Visionary Award at the Los Angeles Press Club's sixth annual National Entertainment Journalism Awards on Nov. 24, after which Whitaker participated in a Q&A about his life and work. ... Saving Mr. Banks' lead actress Emma Thompson was a guest on BAFTA's "A Life in Pictures" television interview series in London on Nov. 24. ... The members of the band U2 co-hosted the New York premiere of Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom on Nov. 25. ... The Weinstein Co. hosted a New York screening of August: Osage County on Nov. 25, followed by a Q&A with the film's director, John Wells, writer Tracy Letts, lead actress Meryl Streep, supporting actors Chris Cooper and Dermot Mulroney and supporting actresses Abigail Breslin, Juliette Lewis, Margo Martindale and Julianne Nicholson. ... On Nov. 26, composer Hans Zimmer will host a Chateau Marmont luncheon in honor of Despicable Me 2's Williams.

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  • Announcements: The Weinstein Co. will host a special screening of Lee Daniels' The Butler at the Soho House in West Hollywood on Nov. 26, to be followed by a reception with the film's lead actor Forest Whitaker and supporting actor Cuba Gooding Jr. ... Focus Features will host a luncheon for its film The Place Beyond the Pines at the Soho House in West Hollywood on Nov. 29, at which supporting actor Bradley Cooper and producers Lynette Howell, Sydney Kimmel and Jamie Patricof are expected to be present. ... Film Independent will host a special LACMA screening of DreamWorks Animation's The Croods on Nov. 30, after which the film's writer-directors Chris Sanders and Kirk DeMicco and its voice star Nicolas Cage will participate in a Q&A. ... The American Cinematheque announced that it will host a retrospective of the work of American Hustle and Out of the Furnace's lead actor Christian Bale on Dec. 1 and 2 at the Aero Theatre in Santa Monica. While Bale will not attend the festivities, Out of the Furnace's writer-director Scott Cooper will participate in a Q&A following the screening of his film on the evening of Dec. 1. ... The IFP announced that Enough Said's Gandolfini will receive a posthumous career tribute at the Gotham Awards on Dec. 2. Steve Buscemi, his friend and co-star on The Sopranos, will make the presentation. (The three other previously announced career tribute recipients are Before Midnight's co-writer/director Richard Linklater, Katherine Oliver and Whitaker.) ... The Capri, Hollywood Film Festival announced that Fox Searchlight's 12 Years a Slave will open its 18th fest on Dec. 27. ... The Palm Springs International Film Festival announced that 12 Years a Slave's director Steve McQueen will receive its Director of the Year Award and August: Osage County's supporting actress Julia Roberts will receive its Spotlight Award on Jan. 4. ... The Santa Barbara International Film Festival announced that Saving Mr. Banks' lead actress Emma Thompson will receive its Modern Master Award on Feb. 8.
  • Potpourri: On Nov. 17, I moderated a Q&A with The Secret Life of Walter Mitty's director/lead actor Ben Stiller following a screening of the film at the AARP's inaugural Movies for Grownups Film Festival. Stiller made news by suggesting that he may give up acting to focus full-time on directing. ... On Nov. 21, I moderated the American Cinematheque's tribute to the great character actor John Goodman at the Aero Theatre in Santa Monica following a screening of the latest film in which Goodman plays a key supporting role, Inside Llewyn Davis, which marks his fifth collaboration with Ethan and Joel Coen. We will exclusively premiere footage of the Q&A on this blog later this week. ... On Nov. 26, I moderated a wide-ranging half-hour interview with 42's supporting actor Harrison Ford that will post on this site soon. ... On Nov. 26, as part of "The Contenders" screening series on which THR and New York's Museum of Modern Art are collaborating, I moderated a Q&A following a screening of RADiUS' Cutie and the Boxer with the film's director Zachary Heinzerling and its subjects, the artists Ushio Shinohara and Noriko Shinohara. ... On Nov. 27, THR will premiere its inaugural "Breakthrough Performers Panel" video on this blog. It is not to be missed!

Without further ado, here is the latest forecast …

12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
Saving Mr. Banks (Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer)
Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, PG-13, trailer)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer)
American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer)
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/26, PG-13, trailer)

Major Threats
(Paramount, 11/22, R, trailer)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions, 10/18, PG-13, trailer)
Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
August: Osage County (The Weinstein Co., 11/8, TBA, trailer)
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox, 11/15, PG-13, trailer)
Lone Survivor (Universal, 12/27, R, trailer)
Enough Said (Fox Searchlight, 9/20, PG-13, trailer)
Her (Warner Bros., 12/18, TBA, trailer)
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, 12/6, R, trailer)
Fruitvale Station (The Weinstein Co., 7/12, R, trailer)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects, 10/25, NC-17, trailer)
Prisoners (Warner Bros., 9/20, R, trailer)

Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/24, R, trailer)
Long Shots
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (The Weinstein Co., 11/29, PG-13, trailer)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox, 12/25, PG, trailer)
Rush (Universal, 9/27, R, trailer)
Mud (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions, 4/26, PG-13, trailer)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features, 3/29, R, trailer)
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros., 5/10, PG-13, trailer)

Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Major Threats
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Lee Daniels (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost)
Spike Jonze (Her)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)
Stephen Frears (Philomena)

Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Nicole Holofcener (Enough Said)
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Long Shots
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)

Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners)
Peter Berg (Lone Survivor)
Ron Howard (Rush)
Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Baz Luhrmann (The Great Gatsby)

Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Major Threats
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)
Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
Long Shots
Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)
Daniel Radcliffe (Kill Your Darlings)
Isaiah Washington (Blue Caprice)

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Major Threats
Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Berenice Bejo (The Past)
Sophie Nelisse (The Book Thief)
Long Shots
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Felicity Jones (The Invisible Woman)
Scarlett Johansson (Don Jon)
Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now)

Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Major Threats
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Steve Coogan (Philomena)
George Clooney (Gravity)
Chris Cooper (August: Osage County)

Harrison Ford (42)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
David Oyelowo (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
Woody Harrelson (Out of the Furnace)
Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)
Long Shots
Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
Bobby Cannavale (Blue Jasmine)
Andrew Dice Clay (Blue Jasmine)
James Franco (Spring Breakers)

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)

Major Threats
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Scarlett Johansson (Her)
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
Naomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
Melissa Leo (Prisoners)
Long Shots
Lea Seydoux (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Zoe Saldana (Out of the Furnace)
Emily Watson (The Book Thief)
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)

12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
Major Threats
August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)
The Book Thief (Michael Petroni)
Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (William Nicholson)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Steve Conrad)
Labor Day (Jason Reitman)
Long Shots
The Invisible Woman (Abi Morgan)
The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)

Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith)
Major Threats
Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (Danny Strong)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron)

All Is Lost (J.C. Chandor)
Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper, Brad Inglesby)
Short Term 12 (Destin Daniel Cretton)
The Way Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)
Frozen (Jennifer Lee, Shane Morris)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, Darius Marder)
Long Shots
Prisoners (Aaron Guzkowski)
Rush (Peter Morgan)
The Past (Asghar Farhadi)
Mud (Jeff Nichols)
Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
Bethlehem (Yuval Adler, Ali Wakad)

Frozen (Disney, 11/27, G, trailer)
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation, 3/22, PG, trailer)
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili, 11/8, PG-13, trailer)
Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer)
Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer)
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, PG, trailer)
Epic (20th Century Fox, 5/24, PG, trailer)
Free Birds (Relativity Media, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
Turbo (DreamWorks, 7/19, PG, trailer)
Khumba (Millennium Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Planes (Disney, 8/9, PG, trailer)
The Smurfs 2 (Sony, 7/31, PG, trailer)
The Legend of Sarila (Phase 4 Films, TBA, TBA,
A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
Rio: 2096 A Story of Love and Fury (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Fake (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)
O Apóstolo (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie – Rebellion (TBA, TBA, TBA, TBA)

The Square (City Drive Entertainment Group, 10/25, NR, TBA)
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer)
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer)
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer)
Tim's Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
20 Feet From Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer) 
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer) 
Casting By (HBO, 11/1, NR, trailer)
The Last of the Unjust (Cohen Media Group, 12/13, NR, trailer)

American Promise (Rada Film Group, 10/18, NR, trailer)
Let the Fire Burn (Zeitgeist Films, 10/2, NR, trailer)
Inequality for All (RADiUS, 9/27, PG, trailer)
After Tiller (Oscilloscope, 9/20, TBA, trailer)
Seduced and Abandoned (HBO, 10/18, NR, trailer)
Blood Brother (Tugg, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Crash Reel (Phase 4 Films, 7/5, TBA, trailer)
The Armstrong Lie (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Gideon's Army (Trilogy Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (Focus World, 5/24, R, trailer)
God Loves Uganda (Variance Films, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Bridegroom (Virgil Films and Entertainment, 10/18, R, trailer)
Free Angela and All Political Prisoners (Lionsgate, 4/5, NR, trailer)
Call Me Kuchu (Cinedigm, 6/14, NR, trailer)
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer)
The Unknown Known (RADiUS, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Muscle Shoals (Magnolia, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
At Berkeley (Zipporah Films, 11/8, TBA, TBA)
Salma (Women Make Movies, 1/?, TBA, trailer)
For No Good Reason (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Our Nixon (Cinedigm, 8/30, NR, trailer)
First Cousin Once Removed (HBO Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer)
Sound City (Roswell Films/Variance Films, 2/1, NR, trailer)
99%: The Occupy Wall Street Collaborative Film (Participant Media, 9/6, TBA, trailer)
Rising From Ashes (First Run Features, 8/2, NR, trailer)
Herblock: The Black & the White (TSC Dist. Services, 8/16, NR, trailer)
Long Shots
Salinger (The Weinstein Co., 9/6, TBA, trailer)
Best Kept Secret (Argot Pictures, 9/6, NR, TBA)
12-12-12 Concert (The Weinstein Co., 11/15, R, trailer)
Leviathan (Cinema Guild, 3/1, NR, trailer)
Terms and Conditions May Apply (Variance Films, 7/12, TBA, trailer)
Fire in the Blood (International Film Circuit, 9/6, NR, trailer)
Linsanity (Ketchup Entertainment, 10/4, NR, trailer)
Informant (Music Box Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer)
Narco Cultura (Cinedigm, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Running From Crazy (OWN and Vitagraph Films, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
56 Up (First Run Features, 1/4, NR, trailer)
Valentine Road (BMP Films, TBA, TBA,
Gahan Wilson: Born Dead, Still Weird (6th Avenue Productions, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
A.K.A. Doc Pomus (TBA, 10/4, TBA,

Iran (The Past)
Israel (Bethlehem)
Italy (The Great Beauty)
United Kingdom (Metro Manila)
Denmark (The Hunt)
Major Threats
Saudi Arabia (Wadjda)

Palestine (Omar)
France (Renoir)
Turkey (The Butterfly's Dream)
Australia (The Rocket)
Morocco (Horses of God)
Russia (Stalingrad)
Poland (Walesa)
Chile (Gloria)
Georgia (In Bloom)
Hong Kong (The Grandmaster)
Mexico (Heli)
Belgium (The Broken Circle Breakdown)
Others, listed alphabetically
Afghanistan (Wajma)
Albania (Agon)
Argentina (Wakolda)
Austria (The Wall)
Azerbaijan (Steppe Man)

Bangladesh (Television)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker)
Brazil (Neighboring Sounds)
Bulgaria (The Color of Chameleon)
Cambodia (The Missing Picture)
Canada (Gabrielle)

Chad (GriGris)
Colombia (La Playa DC)
Croatia (Halima's Path)
Czech Republic (The Don Juans)

Dominican Republic (Quien Manda?)
Ecuador (The Porcelain Horse)
Egypt (Winter of Discontent)
Estonia (Free Range)
Finland (The Disciple)
Germany (Two Lives)
Greece (Boy Eating the Bird's Food)
Hungary (The Notebook)
Iceland (Of Horses and Men)
India (The Good Road)
Indonesia (Sang Kiai)

Japan (The Great Passage)
Kazakhstan (The Old Man)
Latvia (Mother I Love You)
Lebanon (Blind Intersections)
Lithuania (Conversations on Serious Topics)
Luxembourg (Blind Spots)

Moldova (All God's Children)
Montenegro (Ace of Spades -- Bad Destiny)

Nepal (Soongava: Dance of the Orchids)
Netherlands (Borgman)
New Zealand (White Lies)
Norway (I Am Yours)
Pakistan (Zinda Bhaag)
Peru (The Cleaner)
Philippines (Transit)
Portugal (Lines of Wellington)
Romania (Child's Pose)
Serbia (Circles)
Singapore (Ilo Ilo)
Slovak Republic (My Dog Killer)
Slovenia (Class Enemy)
South Africa (Four Corners)
South Korea (Juvenile Offender)
Spain (15 Years Plus a Day)
Sweden (Eat Sleep Die)
Switzerland (More Than Honey)
Taiwan (Soul)
Thailand (Countdown)
Ukraine (Parajanov)
Uruguay (Anina)
Venezuela (Breach in the Silence)

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among many other surprises.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg