FEINBERG FORECAST: The Lay of the Land a Week Before the 51st New York Film Festival

THR's awards analyst assesses the field after a week that was quiet except for nations rushing to declare foreign language submissions before the Oct. 1 deadline.
Wilson Webb/Twentieth Century Fox

Every week through to the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," which will reflect his latest take on the standings of the contenders in each of the major categories.

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among other long-shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings), publicly-available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Without further ado, here is the latest Feinberg Forecast...

The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)

12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer)
Saving Mr. Banks (Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer)
Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 10/18, PG-13, trailer)
Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/20, TBA, TBA)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox, 12/25, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
The Monuments Men (Sony, 12/18, TBA, trailer)
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/26, PG-13, trailer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer)
Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
Rush (Universal, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, TBA, TBA)
Fruitvale Station (The Weinstein Co., 7/12, R, trailer)
Prisoners (Warner Bros., 9/20, TBD, trailer)
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
August: Osage County (The Weinstein Co., 11/8, TBA, trailer)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (The Weinstein Co., 11/29, TBA, trailer)
Her (Warner Bros., 11/20, TBA, trailer)
The Counselor (20th Century Fox, 10/25, TBA, TBA)
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/24, R, trailer)
The Past (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/20, TBA, TBA)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects, 10/25, NC-17, TBA)
Long Shots
Labor Day (Paramount, 12/25, TBA, TBA)
Lone Survivor (Universal, 12/27, R, trailer)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros., 12/13, TBA, trailer)
A Most Wanted Man (Lionsgate, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, 12/6, TBA, trailer)
Mud (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 4/26, PG-13, trailer)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features, 3/29, R, trailer)

Frances Ha (IFC Films, 5/17, R, trailer)
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros., 5/10, PG-13, trailer

Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Lee Daniels (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Major Threats
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Ron Howard (Rush)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Spike Jonze (Her)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Stephen Frears (Philomena)
Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners)
Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Asghar Farhadi (The Past)
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Ridley Scott (The Counselor)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)
Long Shots
John Wells (August: Osage County)
Jason Reitman (Labor Day)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)
Justin Chadwick (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Peter Berg (Lone Survivor)
Brian Percival (The Book Thief)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)
Derek Cianfrance (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Jeff Nichols (Mud)

Noah Baumbach (Frances Ha)

Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer's Club)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Major Threats
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Matt Damon (The Monuments Men)
Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
Michael Fassbender (The Counselor)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (A Most Wanted Man)
Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)
Long Shots
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
Chris Hemsworth (Rush)
Will Forte (Nebraska)

Daniel Radcliffe (Kill Your Darlings)
Casey Affleck (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Fifth Estate)

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Major Threats
Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco)
Berenice Bejo (The Past)

Sophie Nelisse (The Book Thief)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)

Kristen Wiig (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Long Shots
Paulina Garcia (Gloria)
Naomi Watts (Diana)
Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now)
Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace)

Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Major Threats
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Steve Coogan (Philomena)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)
Harrison Ford (42)
John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
George Clooney (Gravity)
Chris Cooper (August: Osage County)
Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
Javier Bardem (The Counselor)
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Matthew McConaughey (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Colin Farrell (Saving Mr. Banks)
Andrew Dice Clay (Blue Jasmine)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
John Goodman (The Monuments Men)
Jean Dujardin (The Monuments Men)

Long Shots
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Tim Roth (Grace of Monaco)
Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
James Franco (Spring Breakers)
Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Bradley Cooper (The Place Beyond the Pines)

Ben Foster (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Dane DeHaan (Kill Your Darlings)

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Naomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Major Threats
Melissa Leo (Prisoners)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Lea Seydoux (Blue Is the Warmest Color)

Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
Felicity Jones (The Invisible Woman)
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Juliette Lewis (August: Osage County)
Emily Watson (The Book Thief)
Rooney Mara (Her)

Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)
Cameron Diaz (The Counselor)
Long Shots
Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)
Zoe Saldana (Out of the Furnace)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives)
Portia Doubleday (Her)
Melonie Diaz (Fruitvale Station)
Sharon Stone (Lovelace)

The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman)
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater)

Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
Major Threats
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Steve Conrad)
The Monuments Men (George Clooney, Grant Heslov)
August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (William Nicholson)
Labor Day (Jason Reitman)
The Book Thief (Michael Petroni)
The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Long Shots
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Guillermo Del Toro, Fran Walsh)
The Invisible Woman (Abi Morgan)
Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)
A Most Wanted Man (Andrew Bovell)

American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Lee Daniels' The Butler (Danny Strong)
Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
Major Threats
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
All Is Lost (J.C. Chandor)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)

The Past (Asghar Farhadi)
Rush (Peter Morgan)
The Counselor (Cormac McCarthy)
The Way Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)
Mud (Jeff Nichols)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, Darius Marder)
Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)

Prisoners (Aaron Guzkowski)
Long Shots
Grace of Monaco (Arash Amel)
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper, Brad Inglesby)
Ain't Them Bodies Saints (David Lowery)
The Bling Ring (Sofia Coppola)

Frozen (Disney, 11/27, TBA, TBA)
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili
, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer)
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation
, 3/22, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer)
Turbo (DreamWorks, 7/19, PG, trailer)
Epic (20th Century Fox, 5/24, PG,
Planes (Disney, 8/9, PG,
Walking with Dinosaurs 3D (20th Century Fox, 12/20, TBA,
Khumba (Millennium Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Escape from Planet Earth (The Weinstein Co., 2/15, PG, trailer)
Free Birds (Relativity Media, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
The Congress (Drafthouse Films, TBA, TBA,
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA,
Long Shots
The Smurfs 2 (Sony, 7/31, PG, trailer)
The Legend of Sarila (Phase 4 Films, TBA, TBA,
The Snow Queen (Vertical Entertainment, 1/3, NR,

20 Feet from Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer)
Tim's Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer)
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer)
The Unknown Known (RADiUS, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Major Threats
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer)
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer)
Call Me Kuchu (Cinedigm, 6/14, NR, trailer)

We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (Focus World, 5/24, R, trailer)
After Tiller (Oscilloscope, 9/20, TBA, trailer)
Free Angela and All Political Prisoners (Lionsgate, 4/5, NR, trailer)
Salinger (The Weinstein Co., 9/6, TBA, trailer)
Blood Brother (Tugg, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Leviathan (Cinema Guild, 3/1, NR, trailer)
Rising from Ashes (First Run Features, 8/2, NR, trailer)
56 Up (First Run Features, 1/4, NR, trailer)
Salma (Women Make Movies, 1/?, TBA, trailer)

For No Good Reason (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
God Loves Uganda (Variance Films, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Terms and Conditions May Apply (Variance Films, 7/12, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
The Armstrong Lie (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Muscle Shoals (Magnolia, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Fire in the Blood (International Film Circuit, 9/6, NR, trailer)
Inequality for All (RADiUS, 9/27, PG, trailer)
Narco Cultura (Cinedigm, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Sound City (Roswell Films/Variance Films, 2/1, NR, trailer)
Informant (Music Box Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer)
99%: The Occupy Wall Street Collaborative Film (Participant Media, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Still Seeking U.S. Distribution
The Expedition to the End of the World (trailer)
Running from Crazy (
Valentine Road

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (*submission not yet confirmed)
Iran (The Past)*
Chile (Gloria)
India (The Lunchbox)*
Italy (The Great Beauty)*
Japan (The Great Passage)

Others, listed alphabetically
Australia (The Rocket)
Austria (The Wall)
Bosnia & Herzegovina (An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker)
Bulgaria (The Color of Chameleon
Cambodia (The Missing Picture)
Denmark (The Hunt)*
Finland (The Disciple)
France (Renoir
Georgia (In Bloom)
Germany (Two Lives)
Greece (Boy Eating the Bird's Food)
Hungary (The Notebook
Israel (Bethlehem)*
Latvia (Mother I Love You
Mexico (Heli) NEW
Montenegro (Bad Destiny)
Nepal (Soongava: Dance of the Orchids)
Netherlands (Borgman
New Zealand (White Lies) NEW
Palestine (Omar)*
Philippines (Transit
Poland (Walesa) NEW
Romania (Child's Pose) NEW
Saudi Arabia (Wadjda)
Serbia (Circles)
Singapore (Ilo Ilo
Sweden (Eat Sleep Die) NEW
Taiwan (Soul) NEW
Turkey (The Butterfly's Dream) NEW
Ukraine (Parajanov) NEW
United Kingdom (Metro Manila) NEW

Follow Scott on Twitter @ScottFeinberg for additional news and analysis.