FEINBERG FORECAST: The Oscar Landscape With Just 3 Weeks to Go Until the Big Night

THR awards analyst Scott Feinberg offers his latest take on the race.
Industrial Light + Magic

What follows is my assessment of the Oscar landscape with just three weeks remaining until the 84th Academy Awards. (21 of 24 categories are addressed below; the three shorts categories will be the subject of a separate post later this week.)

Among the events of the past week that were considered while compiling these projections: the Art Directors Guild Awards; the Annie Awards; the Santa Barbara International Film Festival's various tributes; and the plethora of talent-attended Q&As that studios are arranging early, often, and everywhere in the run-up to the February 21st deadline for Academy members to turn in their ballots.

PHOTOS: Academy Awards 2012 Nominees

Please note that contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of other major awards groups (a key appears at the bottom of this post) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple) -- and that some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

1. The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, PG-13, trailer) PGA, DGA, BFCA, HFPA, NYFCC, SAG, ADG, ACE, ASC, BAFTA, CDG
2. Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, PG, trailer) NBR, AFI, PGA, DGA, BFCA, HFPA, ADG, ACE, ASC, CAS, CDG, WGA
3. The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer) NBR, AFI, SAG, PGA, ADG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA, CDG, WGA
4. The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer) HFPA, AFI, LAFCA, PGA, DGA, SAG, BFCA, ADG,  ACE , BAFTA, CDG, WGA
5. Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer) AFI, PGA, DGA, SAG, BFCA, HFPA, ACE, WGA
6. Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, PG-13, trailer) AFI, PGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE, CAS, WGA
7. War Horse (Disney, 12/25, PG-13, trailer) PGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE
8. The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer) AFI, BFCA, ASC
9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Bros., 12/25, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, ADG

1. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) DGA, BFCA, NYFCC, HFPA, BAFTA
2. Martin Scorsese (Hugo) HFPA, NBR, DGA, BFCA, BAFTA
3. Alexander Payne (The Descendants) DGA, BFCA, HFPA
4. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) DGA, HFPA
5. Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life) LAFCA, NSFC

1. Jean Dujardin (The Artist) SAG, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. George Clooney (The Descendants) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG, BAFTA
3. Brad Pitt (Moneyball) NSFC, NYFCC, SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
4. Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) BAFTA
5. Demian Bichir (A Better Life) SAG

1. Viola Davis (The Help) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
2. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) HFPA, NYFCC, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA
3. Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) HFPA, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA
4. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) SAG, HFPA
5. Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) HFPA

1. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, NBR, LAFCA, BAFTA
2. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
3. Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
4. Nick Nolte (Warrior) SAG, BFCA
5. Jonah Hill (Moneyball) SAG, HFPA, BAFTA

1. Octavia Spencer (The Help) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
2. Berenice Bejo (The Artist) SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
3. Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) SAG, BFCA, BAFTA
4. Jessica Chastain (The Help) NSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA, SAG, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
5. Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) SAG, HFPA

1. Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants) NBR, NYFCC, BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA, USC, WGA
2. Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA, USC, WGA
3. John Logan (Hugo) BFCA, WGA
4. George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March) HFPA, BAFTA
5. Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) BAFTA, USC

1. Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA, WGA
2. Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
3. Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) BAFTA, WGA
4. J.C. Chandor (Margin Call)
5. Asghar Farhadi (A Separation) LAFCA

1. Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer) IAFA, NBR, LAFCA, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, ACE, BAFTA, MPSE, VES
2. Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, PG, trailer) IAFA, PGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE, MPSE, VES
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer) IAFA, PGA, BFCA, MPSE, VES
4. Chico & Rita (GKIDS, 2/10, NR, trailer) IAFA
5. A Cat in Paris (GKIDS, NR, NR, trailer) IAFA

1. If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer) WGA
2. Undefeated (The Weinstein Company, 2/10, TBA, TBA) BFCA
3. Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer) NBR, DGA
4. Pina (Sundance Selects, 12/23, TBA, trailer) WGA
5. Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films, 10/5, TBA, trailer)

1. A Separation (Iran) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, NYFCC
2. Footnote (Israel)
3. In Darkness (Poland) BFCA
4. Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
5. Bullhead (Belgium)

1. Hugo (Dante Ferretti) ADG, BFCA, LAFCA, BAFTA
2. The Artist (Laurence Bennett) ADG, BFCA, BAFTA
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Stuart Craig) ADG, BFCA, BAFTA
4. War Horse (Rick Carter) BFCA, BAFTA
5. Midnight in Paris (Anne Seibel)

1. The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki) BFCA, NYFCC, LAFCA, ASC
2. Hugo (Robert Richardson) BFCA, ASC, BAFTA
3. The Artist (Guillaume Schiffman) BFCA, ASC, BAFTA
4. War Horse (Janusz Kaminski) BFCA, BAFTA
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth) ASC, BAFTA

1. The Artist (Mark Bridges) BFCA, BAFTA, CDG
2. Hugo (Sandy Powell) BFCA, BAFTA, CDG
3. Jane Eyre (Michael O'Connor) BFCA, BAFTA, CDG
4. W.E (Arianne Phillips) CDG
5. Anonymous (Lisy Christl)

1. Hugo (Thelam Schoonmaker) BFCA, ACE, BAFTA
2. The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius, Anne-Sophie Bion) BFCA, ACE, BAFTA
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall) BFCA, ACE
4. The Descendants (Kevin Tent) ACE
5. Moneyball (Christopher Tellefson) ACE

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight) BFCA, BAFTA
2. The Iron Lady (Marese Langan, Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland) BFCA, BAFTA
3. Albert Nobbs (Matthew W. Mungle, Lynn Johnston, Martial Corneville) BFCA

1. The Artist (Ludovic Bource) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
2. Hugo (Howard Shore) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
3. War Horse (John Williams) BFCA, HFPA, BAFTA
4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Alberto Iglesias) BAFTA
5. The Adventures of Tintin (John Williams)

1. "Man or Muppet" (Bret McKenzie for The Muppets)
2. "Real in Rio" (Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett for Rio)

1. Hugo (Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton) MPSE
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn) MPSE (2)
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Ren Klyce) MPSE (2)
4. War Horse (Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom) MPSE (2)
5. Drive (Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis) MPSE (2)

1. Hugo (Tom Fleischman, John Midgley) CAS
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Peter J. Devlin, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers)
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson)
4. War Horse (Tom Johnson, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Stuart Wilson)
5. Moneyball (Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick) CAS

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri, R. Christopher White) BFCA, BAFTA, VES
2. Hugo (Robert Legato, Edson Williams, Ben Grossman, Alex Henning) BFCA, BAFTA
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Tim Burke, Greg Butler, John Richardson, David Vickery) BFCA, BAFTA, VES
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Scott Benza, Matthew Butler, Scott Farrar, John Frazier) VES
5. Real Steel (Swen Gillberg, Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor)

* * *


ACE = 62nd Eddie Awards (February 18, 2012)

AFI = 12th American Film Institute Awards (January 13, 2012)

ADG = 16th Art Directors Guild Awards (February 4, 2012)

ASC = 26th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (February 12, 2012)

BAFTA = 65th British Academy Film Awards (February 12, 2012)

BFCA = 17th Critics' Choice Awards (January 12, 2012)

CAS = 48th Cinema Audio Society Awards (February 18, 2012)

CDG = 14th Costume Design Guild Awards (February 21, 2012)

DGA = 64th Directors Guild of America Awards (January 28, 2012)

HFPA = 69th Golden Globe Awards (January 15, 2012)

IAFA = 39th Annie Awards (February 4, 2012)

LAFCA = 37th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (January 13, 2012)

MPSE = 59th Golden Reel Awards (February 19, 2012)

NBR = 83rd National Board of Review Awards (January 10, 2012)

NSFC = 46th National Society of Film Critics Awards (January 7, 2012)

NYFCC = 77th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (January 9, 2012)

PGA = 23rd Producers Guild of America Awards (January 21, 2012)

SAG = 18th Screen Actors Guild Awards (January 29, 2012)

USC = 24th USC Scripter Awards (February 12, 2012)

VES = 10th Visual Effects Society Awards (February 7, 2012)

WGA = 64th Writers Guild of America Awards (February 19, 2012)

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