Feinberg Forecast: Scott's First 2021 Read of the Oscars Race

Judas and the Black Messiah - Publicity still 1 - H 2020
Warner Bros. Pictures

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Soul (Pixar)
Mank (Netflix)

Major Threats
News of the World (Universal)
Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)

Possibilities
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
(Focus)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
(Amazon)
The Midnight Sky (Netflix)

Long Shots
Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)
The Invisible Man
(Universal)
Let Them All Talk
(HBO Max)
On the Rocks (A24/Apple)
Ammonite (Neon)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Cherry
(Apple TV+)
I Carry You With Me (Sony Classics)
Joe Bell (Solstice)
Land (Focus)
Let Him Go (Focus)
The Little Things (Warner Bros.)
Martin Eden (Kino Lorber)
Our Friend (Gravitas)
Palmer (Apple TV+)
Supernova (Bleecker Street)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)
Wild Mountain Thyme (Bleecker Street)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
David Fincher (Mank)
Paul Greengrass (News of the World)
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Regina King (One Night in Miami) — podcast
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Possibilities
Florian Zeller (The Father)
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Pete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)
Sam Levinson (Malcolm & Marie)
Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)

Long Shots
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast
Steven Soderbergh (Let Them All Talk)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Gabriela Cowperthwaite (Our Friend)
Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Heidi Ewing (I Carry You With Me)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (Joe Bell)
John Lee Hancock (The Little Things)
Pietro Marcello (Martin Eden)
Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Cherry)
John Patrick Shanley (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Fisher Stevens (Palmer)
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Robin Wright (Land)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast

Major Threats
Ben Affleck (The Way Back)
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]

Possibilities
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast

Long Shots
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)
Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Peter Gerety (Working Man)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Casey Affleck (Our Friend) — podcast
Kevin Costner (Let Him Go)
Clayne Crawford (The Killing of Two Lovers)
Jamie Dornan (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Armando Espitia (I Carry You With Me)
Colin Firth (Supernova)
Tom Holland (Cherry)
Jude Law (The Nest)
John Magaro (First Cow)
Luca Marinelli (Martin Eden)
Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (Farewell Amor)
Jim Parsons (The Boys in the Band)
Trevante Rhodes (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Justin Timberlake (Palmer)
Mark Wahlberg (Joe Bell)
Denzel Washington (The Little Things) — podcast

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie)
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast

Major Threats
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Meryl Streep (The Prom) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) — podcast
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]

Possibilities
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) — podcast
Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) — podcast
Yeri Han (Minari)
Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) — podcast
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast

Long Shots
Rashida Jones (On the Rocks) — podcast
Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs)
Charlize Theron (The Old Guard)
Rosamund Pike (Radioactive) — podcast
Naomi Watts (Penguin Bloom)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)
Haley Bennett (Swallow)
Emily Blunt (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Carrie Coon (The Nest)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Clare Dunne (Herself)
Dakota Johnson (Our Friend)
Diane Lane (Let Him Go)
Sienna Miller (Wander Darkly)
Rosamund Pike (I Care a Lot)
Eliza Scanlen (Babyteeth)
Katherine Waterston (The World to Come)
Evan Rachel Wood (Kajillionaire)
Robin Wright (Land)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast

Major Threats
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)

Possibilities
Will Patton (Minari)
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Long Shots
Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Billy Crystal (Standing Up, Falling Down) — podcast

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Ryder Allen (Palmer)
Demian Bichir (Land)
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
Rami Malek (The Little Things) — podcast
Reid Miller (Joe Bell)
Jason Segel (Our Friend) — podcast
Gary Sinise (Joe Bell)
Stanley Tucci (Supernova)
Christopher Walken (Wild Mountain Thyme)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast
Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Candice Bergen (Let Them All Talk)
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

Possibilities
Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast

Long Shots
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Marsha Stephanie Blake (I'm Your Woman)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Ciara Bravo (Cherry)
Connie Britton (Joe Bell)
Vanessa Kirby (The World to Come)
Natasha Lyonne (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Juno Temple (Palmer)
Vanessa Williams (Bad Hair)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass)

Major Threats
The Life Ahead
(Edoardo Ponti)
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
(Charlie Kaufman) — podcast
The Midnight Sky
(Mark L. Smith)

Possibilities
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Cohen]
The Personal History of David Copperfield
(Armando Iannucci)

Long Shots
Shirley
(Sarah Gibbons)
Emma
(Eleanor Catton)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Cherry (Jessica Goldberg & Angela Russo-Otstot)
First Cow
(Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
Let Him Go (Thomas Bezucha)
Martin Eden (Maurizio Braucci)
Our Friend (Brad Ingelsby)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)
Wild Mountain Thyme (John Patrick Shanley)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Promising Young Woman
(Emerald Fennell)
Minari
(Lee Isaac Chung)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)

Major Threats
Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)
The Forty-Year-Old Version
(Radha Blank)
Mank
(Jack Fincher)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
(Eliza Hittman)
Da 5 Bloods
(Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]

Possibilities
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Palm Springs
(Andy Siara)
On the Rocks
(Sofia Coppola)
I'm Your Woman (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)

Long Shots
Let Them All Talk (Deborah Eisenberg)
The King of Staten Island
(Judd Apatow) — podcast
Ammonite
(Francis Lee)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Bad Hair (Justin Simien)
The Climb (Michael Angelo Covino & Kyle Marvin)
Herself (Malcolm Campbell & Clare Dunne)
Joe Bell (Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana)
Kajillionaire (Miranda July)
Land (Jesse Chatham & Erin Dignam)
The Little Things (John Lee Hancock)
Miss Juneteenth (Channing Godfrey Peoples)
Palmer (Cheryl Guerriero)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Time (Amazon)
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of Shortlist
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
The Dissident (Briarcliff) — podcast [Bryan Fogel]
MLK/FBI (IFC)
City Hall (Zipporah) — podcast [Frederick Wiseman]
Boys State (Apple)
On the Record (HBO Max)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
Acasa, My Home (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
The Way I See It (Focus)

Possibilities
John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia/Participant)
Notturno
(Super LTD)
Totally Under Control
(Neon) — podcast [Alex Gibney]
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)
The Human Factor
(Sony Classics)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
I Am Not Alone (self-distributed)
I Am Greta
(Hulu)
Kingdom of Silence
(Showtime)
The Fight
(Magnolia/Topic)
Athlete A
(Netflix)
Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) — podcast [Ron Howard]

Long Shots
Searching for Mr. Rugoff (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Miss Americana
(Netflix)
Be Water
(ESPN)
Kiss the Ground
(self-distributed)
Francesco
(still seeking U.S. distribution)
Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) — podcast [Cristina Costantini]
A Secret Love (Netflix)
Circus of Books (Netflix)
Red Penguins (Universal) — podcast [Gabe Polsky]
American Selfie (MTV)
Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and the Band (Magnolia)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)
76 Days
(MTV)
Apocalypse '45
(Discovery)
Assassins
(Greenwich)
Babenco: Tell Me When I Die
(still seeking U.S. distribution)
Beautiful Something Left Behind
(MTV)
Belly of the Beast
(PBS)
Belushi
(Showtime)
Coded Bias
(PBS Independent Lens)
Crock of Gold
(Magnolia)
The Crying Steppe
(Kazakhstan)
Desert One
(Greenwich)
Disclosure (Netflix)
The Earth Is Blue as an Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Father Soldier Son (Netflix)
Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Finding Yingying (MTV)
Fireball: Visitor from Darker Worlds (Apple TV+)
The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Giving Voice (Netflix)
The Go-Go's (Showtime)
Gunda (Neon)
I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)
Mayor (Film Movement)
Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)
A Most Beautiful Thing (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)
My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)
Napoli Eden (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)
Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rewind (Grizzly Creek)
Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
Softie (Icarus)
Stars and Strife (self-distributed)
The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)
Stray (Magnolia)
A Thousand Cuts (PBS)
'Til Kingdom Come (still seeking U.S. distribution)
To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Transhood (HBO)
Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Viewing Booth (Roco)
Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wild Daze (Cinedigm)
Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
With Drawn Arms (Starz)
Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Official Submissions (alphabetical)
14 Days, 12 Nights
(Canada)
Agnes Joy
(Iceland)
And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)
Another Round (Denmark)
Apples (Greece)
Arracht (Ireland)
Asia (Israel)
Atlantis (Ukraine)
The Auschwitz Report
(Slovakia)
Babenco: Tell Me When I Die
(Brazil)
Beginning
(Georgia)
Blizzard of Souls
(Latvia)
Broken Keys
(Lebanon)
Bulado
(Netherlands)
Causa Justa
(Panama)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
Charter (Sweden)
Collective (Romania)
The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)
Dara of Jasenovac (Serbia)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Emptiness (Ecuador)
The Endless Trench (Spain)
Exile (Kosovo)
Extracurricular (Croatia)
The Father (Bulgaria)
Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)
Heliopolis (Algeria)
Hope (Norway)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Impetigore (Indonesia)
Jallikattu (India)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)
The Last Ones (Estonia)
Leap (China)
The Letter (Kenya)
Lunana a Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Man Standing Next (South Korea)
Mindanao (Philippines)
Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)
The Mole Agent (Chile)
My Little Sister (Switzerland)
Nafi's Father (Senegal)
Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
Notturno (Italy)
Nova Lituania (Lithuania)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
Open Door (Albania)
Preparations to Be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
River Tales (Luxembourg)
Roh (Malaysia)
The Sleepwalkers (Argentina)
Song Without a Name (Peru)
Stories From the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)
A Sun (Taiwan)
Sun Children (Iran)
This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)
Tove (Finland)
True Mothers (Japan)
Two of Us (France)
Vitalina Varela (Portugal)
What We Wanted (Austria)
Willow (North Macedonia)
Working Girls (Belgium)