Feinberg Forecast: The Landscape Heading In to Oscar Shortlist Voting

Andra Day in The United States Vs. Billie Holiday
Courtesy of Hulu

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Soul (Pixar)
Mank (Netflix)

Major Threats
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
News of the World (Universal)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)

Possibilities
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)
First Cow (A24)
The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)
Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)

Long Shots
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
(Paramount)
The White Tiger
(Netflix)
The Way Back
(Warner Bros.)
The Invisible Man
(Universal)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
David Fincher (Mank)
Regina King (One Night in Miami) — podcast
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Possibilities
Paul Greengrass (News of the World) — podcast
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Kelly Reichardt (First Cow)

Long Shots
Florian Zeller (The Father)
Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Pete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)
Ramin Bahrani (The White Tiger)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Ben Affleck (The Way Back) — podcast

Major Threats
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast

Possibilities
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)

Long Shots
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Adarsh Gourav (The White Tiger)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie)

Major Threats
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Meryl Streep (The Prom) — podcast
Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) — podcast

Possibilities
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) — podcast

Long Shots
Yeri Han (Minari)
Radha Blank (The 40-Year-Old Version)
Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) — podcast
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast
Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Major Threats
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

Possibilities
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Long Shots
Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Will Patton (Minari)
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Rajkummar Rao (The White Tiger)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

Major Threats
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Candice Bergen (Let Them All Talk)
Helena Zengel (News of the World)

Possibilities
Priyanka Chopra-Jonas (The White Tiger)
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast

Long Shots
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Alexis Chikaeze (Miss Juneteenth)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass) — podcast [Greengrass]

Major Threats
The Life Ahead
(Ugo Chiti & Edoardo Ponti)
The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Cohen]

Possibilities
First Cow (Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
(Charlie Kaufman) — podcast
The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)

Long Shots
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)
Shirley
(Sarah Gibbons)
The Personal History of David Copperfield
(Armando Iannucci)
Emma.
(Eleanor Catton)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Minari
(Lee Isaac Chung)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)

Major Threats
Mank (Jack Fincher)
Da 5 Bloods
(Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]
Malcolm & Marie
(Sam Levinson)
The Forty-Year-Old Version
(Radha Blank)

Possibilities
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)
Judas and the Black Messiah
(Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Palm Springs
(Andy Siara)
On the Rocks (Sofia Coppola)

Long Shots
Miss Juneteenth
(Channing Godfrey Peoples)
I'm Your Woman
(Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
Ammonite
(Francis Lee)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Time (Amazon)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of Shortlist
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
The Dissident (Briarcliff) — podcast [Bryan Fogel]
MLK/FBI (IFC)
City Hall (Zipporah) — podcast [Frederick Wiseman]
Boys State (Apple)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
On the Record (HBO Max)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
Notturno (Super LTD)

Possibilities
The Way I See It (Focus)
Acasa, My Home
(Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
John Lewis: Good Trouble
(Magnolia/Participant)
Totally Under Control
(Neon) — podcast [Alex Gibney]
All In: The Fight for Democracy
(Amazon)
The Human Factor
(Sony Classics)
I Am Greta
(Hulu)
Kingdom of Silence
(Showtime)
The Fight
(Magnolia/Topic)
Athlete A
(Netflix)
Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) — podcast [Ron Howard]

Long Shots
Be Water (ESPN)
Giving Voice
(Netflix)
I Am Not Alone
(self-distributed)
Searching for Mr. Rugoff
(still seeking U.S. distribution)
Miss Americana
(Netflix)
Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)
Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) — podcast [Cristina Costantini]
A Secret Love (Netflix)
Circus of Books (Netflix)

Still to See
40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)
76 Days
(MTV)
Apocalypse '45
(Discovery)
Assassins
(Greenwich)
Babenco: Tell Me When I Die
(still seeking U.S. distribution)
Beautiful Something Left Behind
(MTV)
Belly of the Beast
(PBS)
Belushi
(Showtime)
Coded Bias
(PBS Independent Lens)
Crock of Gold
(Magnolia)
The Crying Steppe
(Kazakhstan)
Desert One
(Greenwich)
Disclosure (Netflix)
The Earth Is Blue as an Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Father Soldier Son (Netflix)
Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Finding Yingying (MTV)
Fireball: Visitor from Darker Worlds (Apple TV+)
The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Go-Go's (Showtime)
Gunda (Neon)
I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)
Mayor (Film Movement)
Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)
A Most Beautiful Thing (Peacock)
Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)
My People (still seeking U.S. distribution)
My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)
Napoli Eden (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Topic)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)
Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rewind (Grizzly Creek)
Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
Softie (Icarus)
Stars and Strife (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)
Stray (Magnolia)
A Thousand Cuts (PBS)
'Til Kingdom Come (Abramorama)
To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Transhood (HBO)
Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Viewing Booth (Roco)
Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wild Daze (Cinedigm)
Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
With Drawn Arms (Starz)
Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Two of Us (France)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)

Rest of Shortlist
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
My Little Sister
(Switzerland)
Apples
(Greece)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
The Mole Agent (Chile)
Notturno (Italy)
A Sun (Taiwan)
Hope (Norway)

Other Official Submissions (alphabetical)
14 Days, 12 Nights
(Canada)
Agnes Joy
(Iceland)
And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)
Arracht (Ireland)
Asia (Israel)
Atlantis (Ukraine)
The Auschwitz Report
(Slovakia)
Babenco: Tell Me When I Die
(Brazil)
Beginning
(Georgia)
Better Days
(Hong Kong)
Blizzard of Souls
(Latvia)
Broken Keys
(Lebanon)
Bulado
(Netherlands)
Causa Justa
(Panama)
Charter (Sweden)
The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)
Dara of Jasenovac (Serbia)
Emptiness (Ecuador)
The Endless Trench (Spain)
Exile (Kosovo)
Extracurricular (Croatia)
The Father (Bulgaria)
Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)
Heliopolis (Algeria)
Impetigore (Indonesia)
Jallikattu (India)
Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)
The Last Ones (Estonia)
Leap (China)
The Letter (Kenya)
Lunana a Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Man Standing Next (South Korea)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
Mindanao (Philippines)
Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)
Nafi's Father (Senegal)
Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)
Nova Lituania (Lithuania)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
Open Door (Albania)
Preparations to Be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)
River Tales (Luxembourg)
Roh (Malaysia)
The Sleepwalkers (Argentina)
Song Without a Name (Peru)
Songs of Solomon (Armenia)
Stories From the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)
Sun Children (Iran)
This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)
Tove (Finland)
True Mothers (Japan)
Vitalina Varela (Portugal)
What We Wanted (Austria)
Willow (North Macedonia)
Working Girls (Belgium)
You Will Die at 20 (Sudan)