Feinberg Forecast: The Lay of the Land as Oscar Nomination Voting Begins

'Borat Subsequent Moviefilm'
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'Borat Subsequent Moviefilm'

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Minari (A24)
Mank (Netflix)
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
News of the World (Universal)

Major Threats
Soul
(Pixar)
Judas and the Black Messiah
(Warner Bros.)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Possibilities
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
Palm Springs
(Hulu/Neon)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
(Focus)

Long Shots
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
Another Round
(Samuel Goldwyn)
First Cow
(A24)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
David Fincher (Mank)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)

Major Threats
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Paul Greengrass (News of the World) — podcast
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Regina King (One Night in Miami) — podcast

Possibilities
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Florian Zeller (The Father)

Long Shots
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Kelly Reichardt (First Cow)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) — podcast
Gary Oldman (Mank) — podcast
Ben Affleck (The Way Back) — podcast

Major Threats
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast

Possibilities
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)
Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

Long Shots
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast

Major Threats
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie) — podcast
Yeri Han (Minari)

Possibilities
Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]

Long Shots
Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) — podcast
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) — podcast
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast

Possibilities
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)

Long Shots
Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Colman Domingo (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Will Patton (Minari)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast

Major Threats
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) — podcast
Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)

Possibilities
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)

Long Shots
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass) — podcast [Greengrass]

Major Threats
The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)
First Cow
(Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
The Life Ahead
(Ugo Chiti & Edoardo Ponti) — podcast [Ponti]

Possibilities
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
(Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Cohen]
The Midnight Sky
(Mark L. Smith)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Armando Iannucci)
Emma (Eleanor Catton)

Long Shots
Let Him Go (Thomas Bezucha)
I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) — podcast
Shirley (Sarah Gibbons)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Promising Young Woman
(Emerald Fennell)
Minari
(Lee Isaac Chung)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
Mank (Jack Fincher)

Major Threats
Soul
(Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)
Da 5 Bloods (Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)

Possibilities
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)
Palm Springs
(Andy Siara)
On the Rocks
(Sofia Coppola)

Long Shots
Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)
Another Round (Tobias Lindholm & Thomas Vinterberg)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Time (Amazon)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of Shortlist
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)
76 Days (MTV)
Boys State (Apple)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
MLK/FBI (IFC)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
Gunda (Neon)
Notturno (Super LTD)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
Two of Us (France)
A Sun (Taiwan)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)

Rest of Shortlist
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Hope
(Norway)
Night of the Kings
(Ivory Coast)
La Llorona
(Guatemala)
The Mole Agent
(Chile)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
Sun Children (Iran)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Soul (Pixar)
Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/GKIDS)
Over the Moon (Netflix)
Onward (Pixar)
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)

Major Threats
The Croods: A New Age (DreamWorks)
Earwig and the Witch
(GKIDS)
The Willoughbys
(Netflix)
Trolls: World Tour (Universal)

Possibilities
Demon Slayer - Kimetsu No Yaiba - The Movie: Mugen Train (Funimation)
On-Gaku: Our Sound
(GKIDS)
Lupin III: The First (GKIDS)

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Frontrunners
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Tenet
Minari

Major Threats
The Trial of the Chicago 7
One Night in Miami
Judas and the Black Messiah
First Cow

Possibilities
The Truffle Hunters
Mulan
Da 5 Bloods
Promising Young Woman

Long Shots
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
The Midnight Sky

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Frontrunners
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Emma
News of the World
Promising Young Woman

Major Threats
The Glorias
Ammonite
Mulan

Possibilities
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Personal History of David Copperfield
One Night in Miami

Long Shots
Birds of Prey
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Trial of the Chicago 7

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Frontrunners
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Nomadland
Mank

Major Threats
Tenet
Promising Young Woman
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Possibilities
One Night in Miami
Minari
Da 5 Bloods

Long Shots
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Midnight Sky

*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*

Frontrunners
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
Mank
Emma
Pinocchio

Rest of Shortlist
Hillbilly Elegy
Birds of Prey
The Little Things
The Glorias
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Frontrunners
Soul
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Tenet
News of the World

Rest of Shortlist
Minari
Da 5 Bloods
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ammonite
The Invisible Man
Mulan
The Life Ahead
The Little Things
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Blizzard of Souls

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
"Hear My Voice" (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
"Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)
"Io Si (Seen)" (The Life Ahead)
"Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
"Never Break" (Giving Voice)

Rest of Shortlist
"Turntables" (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
"Fight for You" (Judas and the Black Messiah)
"Wuhan Flu" (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
"Show Me Your Soul" (Mr. Soul!)
"See What You've Done" (Belly of the Beast)
"Loyal Brave True" (Mulan)
"Rain Song" (Minari)
"Green" (Sound of Metal)
"Free" (The One and Only Ivan)
"Make It Work" (Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey)

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Frontrunners
Mank
Tenet
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
The Midnight Sky

Major Threats
Judas and the Black Messiah
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Personal History of David Copperfield

Possibilities
Mulan
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Emma

Long Shots
The Prom
The Father
Ammonite
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

*BEST SOUND*

Frontrunners
Sound of Metal
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Major Threats
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Midnight Sky
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Prom

Possibilities
One Night in Miami
Judas and the Black Messiah
Nomadland
The Outpost
The Invisible Man

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Frontrunners
Tenet
Mank
The Midnight Sky
The One and Only Ivan
Welcome to Chechnya

Rest of Shortlist
Soul
Mulan
Birds of Prey
Bloodshot
Love and Monsters

*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*

Frontrunners
If Anything Happens I Love You
To Gerard
Yes-People
The Snail and the Whale
Out

Rest of Shortlist
Kapaemahu
Opera
Burrow
Genius Loci
Traces

*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*

Frontrunners
A Concerto Is a Conversation
A Love Song for Latasha

Colette
Hysterical Girl
What Would Sophia Loren Do?

Rest of Shortlist
Do Not Split
Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa
Call Center Blues

Hunger Ward
The Speed Cubers

*BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT*

Frontrunners
Two Distant Strangers
The Human Voice
Feeling Through
The Van
The Letter Room

Rest of Shortlist
White Eye
Da Yie
Bittu
The Present
The Kicksled Choir