Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape Heading Into the Holidays

Never Rarely Sometimes Always - Sundance - Publicity - EMBED 2020
'Never Rarely Sometimes Always' / Courtesy of Sundance

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Mank (Netflix)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Sound of Metal (Amazon)

Major Threats
Soul (Pixar)
News of the World (Universal)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)

Possibilities
Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)
The Invisible Man (Universal)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)
The Midnight Sky (Netflix)

Long Shots
Let Them All Talk (HBO Max)
On the Rocks (A24/Apple)
Ammonite (Neon)
The Prom (Netflix)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Cherry
(Apple TV+)
I Carry You With Me (Sony Classics)
Joe Bell (Solstice)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
The Little Things (Warner Bros.)
Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)
Martin Eden (Kino Lorber)
Our Friend (Gravitas/Roadside)
Palmer (Apple TV+)
Supernova (Bleecker Street)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)
Wild Mountain Thyme (Bleecker Street)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
David Fincher (Mank)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast

Major Threats
Paul Greengrass (News of the World)
Florian Zeller (The Father)
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Regina King (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Possibilities
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Pete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)
Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast

Long Shots
Steven Soderbergh (Let Them All Talk)
Sofia Coppola (On the Rocks)
Max Barbakow (Palm Springs)
Leigh Whannell (The Invisible Man)
Ryan Murphy (The Prom) — podcast

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Gabriela Cowperthwaite (Our Friend)
Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Heidi Ewing (I Carry You With Me)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (Joe Bell)
John Lee Hancock (The Little Things)
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Sam Levinson (Malcolm & Marie)
Pietro Marcello (Martin Eden)
Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Cherry)
John Patrick Shanley (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Fisher Stevens (Palmer)
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast

Major Threats
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Ben Affleck (The Way Back)
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)

Possibilities
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast
Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield) — podcast

Long Shots
Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)
Adarsh Gourav (The White Tiger)
Peter Gerety (Working Man)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Casey Affleck (Our Friend) — podcast
Clayne Crawford (The Killing of Two Lovers)
Jamie Dornan (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Armando Espitia (I Carry You With Me)
Colin Firth (Supernova)
Tom Holland (Cherry)
Jude Law (The Nest)
John Magaro (First Cow)
Luca Marinelli (Martin Eden)
Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Viggo Mortensen (Falling)
Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (Farewell Amor)
Jim Parsons (The Boys in the Band)
Trevante Rhodes (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Justin Timberlake (Palmer)
Mark Wahlberg (Joe Bell)
Denzel Washington (The Little Things) — podcast
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Meryl Streep (The Prom) — podcast

Major Threats
Meryl Streep (Let Them All Talk) — podcast
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) — podcast
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit)
Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) — podcast

Possibilities
Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) — podcast
Han Yeri (Minari)
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Rashida Jones (On the Rocks) — podcast

Long Shots
Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs)
Charlize Theron (The Old Guard)
Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Rosamund Pike (Radioactive) — podcast

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)
Haley Bennett (Swallow)
Emily Blunt (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Carrie Coon (The Nest)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Clare Dunne (Herself)
Dakota Johnson (Our Friend)
Diane Lane (Let Him Go)
Sienna Miller (Wander Darkly)
Julianne Moore (The Glorias)
Eliza Scanlen (Babyteeth)
Katherine Waterston (The World to Come)
Evan Rachel Wood (Kajillionaire)
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast

Major Threats
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast

Possibilities
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Billy Crystal (Standing Up, Falling Down) — podcast
Will Patton (Minari)

Long Shots
Brian Dennehy (Driveways)
J.K. Simmons (Palm Springs)
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Lucas Hedges (French Exit) — podcast

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Ryder Allen (Palmer)
Lance Henriksen (Falling)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
Rami Malek (The Little Things) — podcast
Reid Miller (Joe Bell)
Jesse Plemons (Judas and the Black Messiah) — podcast
Jason Segel (Our Friend) — podcast
Gary Sinise (Joe Bell)
Stanley Tucci (Supernova)
Christopher Walken (Wild Mountain Thyme)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) — podcast
Youn Yuh-jung  (Minari)
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)

Major Threats
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Candice Bergen (Let Them All Talk)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

Possibilities
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast
Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)

Long Shots
Marsha Stephanie Blake (I'm Your Woman)
Marisa Tomei (The King of Staten Island)
Swankie (Nomadland)
Linda May (Nomadland)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Ciara Bravo (Cherry)
Connie Britton (Joe Bell)
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Vanessa Kirby (The World to Come)
Natasha Lyonne (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Juno Temple (Palmer)
Alicia Vikander (The Glorias) — podcast
Vanessa Williams (Bad Hair)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass)

Major Threats
I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) — podcast
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
(Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Cohen]
The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)

Possibilities
Emma (Eleanor Catton)
The Personal History of David Copperfield
(Armando Iannucci)
The Life Ahead
(Edoardo Ponti)
The Prom (Chad Beguelin & Bob Martin)

Long Shots
Shirley
(Sarah Gibbons)
The White Tiger
(Ramin Bahrani) — podcast
The Outpost
(Eric Johnson & Paul Tamasy)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Cherry (Jessica Goldberg & Angela Russo-Otstot)
First Cow
(Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
The Glorias
(Sarah Ruhl & Julie Taymor)
Martin Eden (Maurizio Braucci)
Our Friend (Brad Ingelsby)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)
Wild Mountain Thyme (John Patrick Shanley)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Promising Young Woman
(Emerald Fennell)
Mank
(Jack Fincher)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)

Major Threats
Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)
Da 5 Bloods
(Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
(Eliza Hittman)

Possibilities
Palm Springs (Andy Siara)
The Forty-Year-Old Version
(Radha Blank)
On the Rocks
(Sofia Coppola)
The King of Staten Island (Judd Apatow) — podcast

Long Shots
Let Them All Talk
(Deborah Eisenberg)
I'm Your Woman
(Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
Ammonite
(Francis Lee)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Bad Hair (Justin Simien)
The Climb (Michael Angelo Covino & Kyle Marvin)
Herself (Malcolm Campbell & Clare Dunne)
Joe Bell (Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Kajillionaire (Miranda July)
The Little Things (John Lee Hancock)
Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)
Miss Juneteenth (Channing Godfrey Peoples)
Palmer (Cheryl Guerriero)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Time (Amazon)
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of Shortlist
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
The Dissident (Briarcliff) — podcast [Bryan Fogel]
MLK/FBI (IFC)
City Hall (Zipporah) — podcast [Frederick Wiseman]
Boys State (Apple)
On the Record (HBO Max)
The Way I See It (Focus)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
The Human Factor (Sony Classics)
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)

Possibilities
Acasa, My Home (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas)
Totally Under Control (Neon) — podcast [Alex Gibney]
I Am Not Alone
(Netflix)
I Am Greta
(Hulu)
Kingdom of Silence
(Showtime)
The Fight
(Magnolia/Topic)
Athlete A
(Netflix)
John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia/Participant)
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)
Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) — podcast [Ron Howard]

Long Shots
Miss Americana (Netflix)
Be Water
(ESPN)
Francesco
(still seeking U.S. distribution)
Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) — podcast [Cristina Costantini]
A Secret Love (Netflix)
Circus of Books (Netflix)
Red Penguins (Universal) — podcast [Gabe Polsky]
American Selfie (MTV)
Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and the Band (Magnolia)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)
76 Days
(MTV)
Apocalypse '45
(Discovery)
Assassins
(Greenwich)
Beautiful Something Left Behind
(MTV)
The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend a Broken Heart
(HBO)
Belly of the Beast
(PBS)
Belushi
(Showtime)
Coded Bias
(PBS Independent Lens)
Crock of Gold
(Magnolia)
Desert One
(Greenwich)
Disclosure (Netflix)
The Earth Is Blue as an Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Father Soldier Son (Netflix)
Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Finding Yingying (MTV)
The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Giving Voice (Netflix)
The Go-Go's (Showtime)
Gunda (Neon)
I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)
Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)
Mayor (Film Movement)
Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)
A Most Beautiful Thing (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)
My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)
Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
Notturno (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)
Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rewind (Grizzly Creek)
Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
Softie (Icarus)
Stars and Strife (self-distributed)
The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)
Stray (Magnolia)
A Thousand Cuts (PBS)
'Til Kingdom Come (still seeking U.S. distribution)
To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Transhood (HBO)
Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Viewing Booth (Roco)
Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wild Daze (Cinemidgm)
Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
With Drawn Arms (Starz)
Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Official Submissions (alphabetical)
Agnes Joy
(Iceland)
And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)
Another Round (Denmark)
Apples (Greece)
Asia (Israel)
Atlantis (Ukraine)
The Auschwitz Report
(Slovakia)
Beginning
(Georgia)
Blizzard of Souls
(Latvia)
Bulado
(Netherlands)
Causa Justa
(Panama)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
Charter (Sweden)
Collective (Romania)
The Crying Steppe (Kazakhstan)
Dara of Jasenovac (Serbia)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Emptiness (Ecuador)
The Endless Trench (Spain)
Exile (Kosovo)
Extracurricular (Croatia)
The Father (Bulgaria)
Funny Boy (Canada)
Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)
Heliopolis (Algeria)
Hope (Norway)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Impetigore (Indonesia)
Jallikattu (India)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)
The Last Ones (Estonia)
Leap (China)
The Letter (Kenya)
Lunana a Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Man Standing Next (South Korea)
Mindanao (Philippines)
Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)
The Mole Agent (Chile)
My Little Sister (Switzerland)
Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
Notturno (Italy)
Nova Lituania (Lithuania)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
Open Door (Albania)
Preparations to Be Together for an Unknown Period of Time (Hungary)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
River Tales (Luxembourg)
Roh (Malaysia)
Song Without a Name (Peru)
Stories From the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)
A Sun (Taiwan)
Sun Children (Iran)
This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)
Tove (Finland)
True Mothers (Japan)
Two of Us (France)
What We Wanted (Austria)
Working Girls (Belgium)