Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscars Projections as Thanksgiving Approaches

Zhao films McDormand in Nomadland, about the itinerant working class.
Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures

Chloe Zhao (left) and Frances McDormand (right) on the set of 'Nomadland.'

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Mank (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
News of the World (Universal)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Soul (Pixar)
The Father (Sony Classics)

Major Threats
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)
The Invisible Man (Universal)
Tenet (Warner Bros.)

Possibilities
Sound of Metal (Amazon)
The Midnight Sky
(Netflix)
On the Rocks
(A24/Apple)
The Prom (Netflix)

Long Shots
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)
The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight)
Ammonite
(Neon)
The Outpost (Chicken Soup For The Soul)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Cherry (Apple TV+)
Joe Bell (Solstice)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
The Little Things (Warner Bros.)
Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)
Martin Eden (Kino Lorber)
The Mauritanian (STX)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)
Supernova (Bleecker Street)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)
Wild Mountain Thyme (Bleecker Street)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
David Fincher (Mank)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)

Major Threats
Paul Greengrass (News of the World)
George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Regina King (One Night in Miami) — podcast
Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast

Possibilities
Florian Zeller (The Father)
Ryan Murphy (The Prom) — podcast
Max Barbakow (Palm Springs)
Sofia Coppola (On the Rocks)

Long Shots
Pete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Leigh Whannell (The Invisible Man)
Rod Lurie (The Outpost)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Kevin Macdonald (The Mauritanian)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (Joe Bell)
John Lee Hancock (The Little Things)
Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Sam Levinson (Malcolm & Marie)
Pietro Marcello (Martin Eden)
Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Cherry)
John Patrick Shanley (Wild Mountain Thyme)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) — podcast
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari) — podcast

Major Threats
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) — podcast
Tom Hanks (News of the World) — podcast [one and two]
Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)
George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) — podcast

Possibilities
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) — podcast
Ben Affleck (The Way Back)
Adarsh Gourav (The White Tiger)
Winston Duke (Nine Days)

Long Shots
Andy Samberg (Palm Springs)
James Corden (The Prom) — podcast
Dev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield) — podcast
Eli Goree (One Night in Miami)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Clayne Crawford (The Killing of Two Lovers)
Jamie Dornan (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Colin Firth (Supernova)
Peter Gerety (Working Man)
Tom Holland (Cherry)
Jude Law (The Nest)
John Magaro (First Cow)
Luca Marinelli (Martin Eden)
Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (Farewell Amor)
Jim Parsons (The Boys in the Band)
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Trevante Rhodes (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Mark Wahlberg (Joe Bell)
Denzel Washington (The Little Things) — podcast
John David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Meryl Streep (The Prom) — podcast

Major Threats
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead)
Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit)
Yeri Han (Minari)
Kate Winslet (Ammonite) — podcast [one and two]

Possibilities
Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) — podcast
Rachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) — podcast
Julia Garner (The Assistant) — podcast
Rashida Jones (On the Rocks) — podcast

Long Shots
Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast
Rosamund Pike (Radioactive) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (I'm Thinking of Ending Things)
Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs)
Charlize Theron (The Old Guard)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)
Haley Bennett (Swallow)
Emily Blunt (Wild Mountain Thyme)
Carrie Coon (The Nest)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Clare Dunne (Herself)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Sienna Miller (Wander Darkly)
Julianne Moore (The Glorias)
Eliza Scanlen (Babyteeth)
Katherine Waterston (The World to Come)
Evan Rachel Wood (Kajillionaire)
Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami) — podcast

Major Threats
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Billy Crystal (Standing Up, Falling Down)
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) — podcast
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7) — podcast

Possibilities
Will Patton (Minari)
Shia LaBeouf (Pieces of a Woman) — podcast
Aldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)
Jonathan Majors (Da 5 Bloods)
Clarke Peters (Da 5 Bloods)

Long Shots
Brian Dennehy (Driveways)
J.K. Simmons (Palm Springs)
Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) — podcast
Lucas Hedges (French Exit) — podcast
Caleb Landry Jones (The Outpost)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
Rami Malek (The Little Things) — podcast
Reid Miller (Joe Bell)
Jesse Plemons (Judas and the Black Messiah) — podcast
Gary Sinise (Joe Bell)
Stanley Tucci (Supernova)
Christopher Walken (Wild Mountain Thyme)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Olivia Colman (The Father) — podcast
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) — podcast

Major Threats
Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) — podcast
Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

Possibilities
Olivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)
Marisa Tomei (The King of Staten Island)
Marsha Stephanie Blake (I'm Your Woman)

Long Shots
Swankie (Nomadland)
Linda May (Nomadland)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Ciara Bravo (Cherry)
Connie Britton (Joe Bell)
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Vanessa Kirby (The World to Come)
Natasha Lyonne (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Alicia Vikander (The Glorias) — podcast
Vanessa Williams (Bad Hair)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) — podcast
News of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass)

Major Threats
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
(Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) — podcast [Cohen]
The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)
The Prom (Chad Beguelin & Bob Martin)

Possibilities
The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani) — podcast
The Personal History of David Copperfield
(Armando Iannucci)
The Life Ahead
(Edoardo Ponti)

Long Shots
Emma (Eleanor Catton)
The Outpost
(Eric Johnson & Paul Tamasy)
Shirley (Sarah Gibbons)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Cherry (Jessica Goldberg & Angela Russo-Ostot)
First Cow
(Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
The Glorias
(Sarah Ruhl & Julie Taymor)
Martin Eden (Mauricio Braucci)
The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)
Wild Mountain Thyme (John Patrick Shanley)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast
Mank (Jack Fincher)
Da 5 Bloods (Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) — podcast [Lee]
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)

Major Threats
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
Palm Springs (Andy Siara)
The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)

Possibilities
On the Rocks (Sofia Coppola)
Tenet (Christopher Nolan)
The King of Staten Island (Judd Apatow) — podcast

Long Shots
I'm Your Woman (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)
Ammonite
(Francis Lee)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
Bad Hair (Justin Simien)
The Climb (Michael Angelo Covino & Kyle Marvin)
Herself (Malcolm Campbell & Clare Dunne)
Joe Bell (Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Kajillionaire (Miranda July)
The Little Things (John Lee Hancock)
Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)
Miss Juneteenth (Channing Godfrey Peoples)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Crip Camp (Netflix)
Time (Amazon)
Collective (Magnolia/Participant)
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO
The Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of Shortlist
Dick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)
The Dissident (Briarcliff) — podcast [Bryan Fogel]
MLK/FBI (IFC)
Boys State (Apple)
Acasa, My Home (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
On the Record (HBO Max)
The Way I See It (Focus)
The Social Dilemma (Netflix)
The Human Factor (Sony Classics)
Totally Under Control (Neon) — podcast [Alex Gibney]

Possibilities
My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
I Am Greta
(Hulu)
Kingdom of Silence
(Showtime)
The Fight
(Magnolia/Topic Studios)
Athlete A
(Netflix)
The Mole Agent (Gravitas Ventures)
John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia/Participant)
Be Water (ESPN)
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)
Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) — podcast [Ron Howard]
Miss Americana (Netflix)

Long Shots
Francesco (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) — podcast [Cristina Costantini]
A Secret Love (Netflix)
Circus of Books (Netflix)
Red Penguins (Universal) — podcast [Gabe Polsky]
American Selfie (MTV)
Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and the Band (Magnolia)
The Mindfulness Movement (Abramorama) — podcast [Jewel]

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)
40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)
76 Days
(MTV)
Apocalypse '45
(Discovery)
Assassins
(Greenwich)
Beautiful Something Left Behind
(MTV)
The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend a Broken Heart
(HBO)
Belly of the Beast
(PBS)
Belushi
(Showtime)
City Hall
(Zipporah)
Coded Bias
(PBS Independent Lens)
Crock of Gold
(Magnolia)
Desert One
(Greenwich)
Disclosure (Netflix)
The Earth Is Blue As An Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Father Soldier Son (Netflix)
Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)
Finding Yingying (MTV)
The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Giving Voice (Netflix)
The Go-Go's (Showtime)
Gunda (Neon)
I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)
Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)
Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)
My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)
Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)
Notturno (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Painter and the Thief (Neon)
The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)
Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rewind (Grizzly Creek)
Rising Phoenix (Netflix)
Softie (Icarus)
Stars and Strife (self-distributed)
The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)
Stray (Magnolia)
A Thousand Cuts (PBS)
'Til Kingdom Come (still seeking U.S. distribution)
To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Transhood (HBO)
Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Viewing Booth (Roco)
Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wild Daze (Cinemidgm)
Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Collective (Romania)
I'm No Longer Here (Mexico)
Charlatan (Czech Republic)
Another Round (Denmark)
Funny Boy (Canada)

Others (alphabetical)
And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)
Apples (Greece)
Asia (Israel)
Atlantis (Ukraine)
The Auschwitz Report
(Slovakia)
Beginning
(Georgia)
Bulado
(Netherlands)
Causa Justa
(Panama)
Charter (Sweden)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
Emptiness (Ecuador)
The Endless Trench (Spain)
Exile (Kosovo)
Extracurricular (Croatia)
The Father (Bulgaria)
Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)
Heliopolis (Algeria)
Hope (Norway)
Impetigore (Indonesia)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)
The Last Ones (Estonia)
The Letter (Kenya)
Lunana A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Man Standing Next (South Korea)
Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)
The Mole Agent (Chile)
My Little Sister (Switzerland)
Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)
Open Door (Albania)
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
River Tales (Luxembourg)
Roh (Malaysia)
Song Without a Name (Peru)
Stories from the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)
A Sun (Taiwan)
Sun Children (Iran)
This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)
Tove (Finland)
True Mothers (Japan)
Two of Us (France)
What We Wanted (Austria)
Working Girls (Belgium)

Prospective Submissions
Bad Tales (Italy)
The Life Ahead
(Italy)
The Disciple (India)