FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 22 Weeks Until the 86th Oscars)

The New York Film Fest is underway, the Academy's foreign language submission deadline is looming and several awards hopefuls are doing well at the box-office.
"Enough Said"  TIFF

Every week until the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," reflecting his latest take on the standings of the contenders in each of the major categories. For more about Scott and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post. Here, meanwhile, is a list of developments since the last forecast that helped to shape this one...

And, without further ado, here is the latest forecast...

American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer)
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/26, PG-13, trailer)
Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 10/18, PG-13, trailer)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
The Monuments Men (Sony, 12/18, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer)
Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
Saving Mr. Banks (Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer)
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, TBA, TBA)
Rush (Universal, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Fruitvale Station (The Weinstein Co., 7/12, R, trailer)
Her (Warner Bros., 11/20, TBA, trailer)
Prisoners (Warner Bros., 9/20, TBD, trailer)
August: Osage County (The Weinstein Co., 11/8, TBA, trailer)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (The Weinstein Co., 11/29, TBA, trailer)
Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/24, R, trailer)
The Past (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/20, TBA, TBA)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects, 10/25, NC-17, TBA)
Long Shots
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros., 5/10, PG-13, trailer)
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
Lone Survivor (Universal, 12/27, R, trailer)
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, 12/6, TBA, trailer)
Labor Day (Paramount, 12/25, TBA, TBA)
Mud (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 4/26, PG-13, trailer)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features, 3/29, R, trailer)

David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Lee Daniels (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Major Threats
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Ron Howard (Rush)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Spike Jonze (Her)
Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Stephen Frears (Philomena)
Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners)
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)
John Wells (August: Osage County)
Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Asghar Farhadi (The Past)
Long Shots
Baz Luhrmann (The Great Gatsby)
Brian Percival (The Book Thief)
Jason Reitman (Labor Day)
Justin Chadwick (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Peter Berg (Lone Survivor)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)
Derek Cianfrance (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Jeff Nichols (Mud)

Noah Baumbach (Frances Ha)

Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer's Club)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Major Threats
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Matt Damon (The Monuments Men)
Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)
Long Shots
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
Chris Hemsworth (Rush)
Will Forte (Nebraska)

Daniel Radcliffe (Kill Your Darlings)
Casey Affleck (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Major Threats
Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Berenice Bejo (The Past)
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)

Kristen Wiig (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Paulina Garcia (Gloria)
Long Shots
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said) NEW
Sophie Nelisse (The Book Thief)
Naomi Watts (Diana)
Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now)
Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace)

Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
Major Threats
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Steve Coogan (Philomena)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
Harrison Ford (42)
Andrew Dice Clay (Blue Jasmine)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
George Clooney (Gravity)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said) NEW
Chris Cooper (August: Osage County)
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Matthew McConaughey (The Wolf of Wall Street)
John Goodman (The Monuments Men)
Long Shots
Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
James Franco (Spring Breakers)
Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Bradley Cooper (The Place Beyond the Pines)

Ben Foster (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Dane DeHaan (Kill Your Darlings)

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Major Threats
Naomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Melissa Leo (Prisoners)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Lea Seydoux (Blue Is the Warmest Color)

Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Rooney Mara (Her)
Juliette Lewis (August: Osage County)
Felicity Jones (The Invisible Woman)
Emily Watson (The Book Thief)
Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)
Long Shots
Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)
Zoe Saldana (Out of the Furnace)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives)
Sharon Stone (Lovelace)
Portia Doubleday (Her)
Melonie Diaz (Fruitvale Station)

The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Monuments Men (George Clooney, Grant Heslov)
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater)

Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
Major Threats
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Steve Conrad)
August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (William Nicholson)
Labor Day (Jason Reitman)
The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Long Shots
The Book Thief (Michael Petroni)
The Invisible Woman (Abi Morgan)
Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)

American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Lee Daniels' The Butler (Danny Strong)
Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
Major Threats
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
All Is Lost (J.C. Chandor)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Prisoners (Aaron Guzkowski)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith)
Rush (Peter Morgan)
Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener)
The Way Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)
Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
The Past (Asghar Farhadi)
Long Shots
Bethlehem (Yuval Adler, Ali Wakad) NEW
Mud (Jeff Nichols)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, Darius Marder)

Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper, Brad Inglesby)
Ain't Them Bodies Saints (David Lowery)
The Bling Ring (Sofia Coppola)

Frozen (Disney, 11/27, TBA, TBA)
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili
, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer)
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation
, 3/22, PG, trailer)
Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer)
Turbo (DreamWorks, 7/19, PG, trailer)
Epic (20th Century Fox, 5/24, PG,
Planes (Disney, 8/9, PG,
Walking with Dinosaurs 3D (20th Century Fox, 12/20, TBA,
Khumba (Millennium Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Escape from Planet Earth (The Weinstein Co., 2/15, PG, trailer)
Free Birds (Relativity Media, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
The Congress (Drafthouse Films, TBA, TBA,
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA,
Long Shots
The Smurfs 2 (Sony, 7/31, PG, trailer)
The Legend of Sarila (Phase 4 Films, TBA, TBA,
The Snow Queen (Vertical Entertainment, 1/3, NR,

Tim's Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
20 Feet from Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer)
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer)
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer)
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer)
Major Threats
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer))
The Unknown Known (RADiUS, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer)
Call Me Kuchu (Cinedigm, 6/14, NR, trailer)

We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (Focus World, 5/24, R, trailer)
After Tiller (Oscilloscope, 9/20, TBA, trailer)
Free Angela and All Political Prisoners (Lionsgate, 4/5, NR, trailer)
Salinger (The Weinstein Co., 9/6, TBA, trailer)
Blood Brother (Tugg, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Leviathan (Cinema Guild, 3/1, NR, trailer)
Rising from Ashes (First Run Features, 8/2, NR, trailer)
56 Up (First Run Features, 1/4, NR, trailer)
Salma (Women Make Movies, 1/?, TBA, trailer)

For No Good Reason (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
God Loves Uganda (Variance Films, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Terms and Conditions May Apply (Variance Films, 7/12, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
The Armstrong Lie (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Muscle Shoals (Magnolia, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Fire in the Blood (International Film Circuit, 9/6, NR, trailer)
Inequality for All (RADiUS, 9/27, PG, trailer)
Narco Cultura (Cinedigm, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Sound City (Roswell Films/Variance Films, 2/1, NR, trailer)
Informant (Music Box Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer)
99%: The Occupy Wall Street Collaborative Film (Participant Media, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Still Seeking U.S. Distribution
The Expedition to the End of the World (trailer)
Running from Crazy (
Valentine Road

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (*submission not yet confirmed)
Iran (The Past)*
Chile (Gloria)

Israel (Bethlehem) NEW
Italy (The Great Beauty)
Denmark (The Hunt)*

Others, listed alphabetically
Argentina (Wakolda) NEW
Australia (The Rocket)
Austria (The Wall)
Belgium (The Broken Circle Breakdown)
Bosnia & Herzegovina (An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker)
Bulgaria (The Color of Chameleon
Cambodia (The Missing Picture)
Croatia (Halima's Path)
Czech Republic (Burning Bush) NEW
Finland (The Disciple)
France (Renoir
Georgia (In Bloom)
Germany (Two Lives)
Greece (Boy Eating the Bird's Food)
Hong Kong (The Grandmaster)
Hungary (The Notebook)
India (The Good Road) NEW
Japan (The Great Passage)
Latvia (Mother I Love You
Lithuania (Conversations on Serious Topics) NEW
Mexico (Heli)
Montenegro (Bad Destiny)
Nepal (Soongava: Dance of the Orchids)
Netherlands (Borgman
New Zealand (White Lies)
Palestine (Omar)*
Philippines (Transit
Poland (Walesa)
Romania (Child's Pose)
Russia (Stalingrad) NEW
Saudi Arabia (Wadjda)
Serbia (Circles)
Singapore (Ilo Ilo
Slovakia (My Dog Killer) NEW
Sweden (Eat Sleep Die)
Taiwan (Soul)
Turkey (The Butterfly's Dream)
Ukraine (Parajanov)
United Kingdom (Metro Manila)

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among other long-shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings), publicly-available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Follow Scott on Twitter @ScottFeinberg for additional news and analysis.

comments powered by Disqus