Golden Globe and SAG Award Noms and Snubs Are Sometimes Overturned by Academy

De Niro in THE IRISHMAN and Hanks in A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD -Split-Publicity_h 2019
Courtesy of Netflix; Sony Pictures

In the wake of Monday's Golden Globe nominations and Wednesday's SAG Award nominations, it is tempting to assume that many names are now locked — in or out — for the still-to-come Oscar nominations. Some performers are being written off in certain circles after being omitted from both lists, among them The Irishman's Robert De Niro and The Lighthouse's Willem Dafoe. Others who received both Globe and SAG mentions are being discussed as if Oscar noms are now assured, including Harriet's Cynthia Erivo and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood's Tom Hanks.

But not so fast.

The Film Academy doesn't even begin its Oscar nomination voting period until Jan. 2 (the Oscar nominees will be announced Jan. 13), and a lot can still happen between now and then. Additionally, there are major differences — in terms of composition and inclination — between the groups that determine the noms for the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Oscars.

Golden Globe nominations are decided by 87 Los Angeles-based journalists for foreign media outlets; SAG noms are determined by 2,500 randomly selected U.S.-based members of SAG-AFTRA, the world's largest union of actors; and acting Oscar noms reflect the tastes of 1,324 members of the Academy's actors branch, an organization comprised of people based all around the world.

Because many — in fact, most — performances do receive Golden Globe and/or SAG Award noms en route to Oscar noms, there is an assumption that performances that do not snag Globe and/or SAG noms instantly fall out of the running for an Oscar nom, and that, conversely, performances that do earn SAG and/or Globe noms are assured Oscar noms. But a look back at the last 18 years does not entirely bear out those assumptions.

Since 2001, 28 of the 360 acting Oscar nominees — just under 8 percent — received neither a Golden Globe nor a SAG Awards nomination en route to the big show. The contenders who prevailed in Oscar nominations despite a cold shoulder from the Globes and SAG are:

1. Samantha Morton (In America, 2003) for best actress
2. Djimon Hounsou (In America, 2003) for best supporting actor
3. Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog, 2003) for best supporting actress
4. Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River, 2003) for best supporting actress
5. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby, 2004) for best actor
6. Alan Alda (The Aviator, 2004) for best supporting actor
7. William Hurt (A History of Violence, 2005) for best supporting actor
8. Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah, 2007) for best actor
9. Laura Linney (The Savages, 2007) for best actress
10. Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best supporting actor
11. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart, 2009) for best supporting actress
12. Javier Bardem (Biutiful, 2010) for best actor
13. Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 2011) for best actor
14. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 2011) for best supporting actor
15. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour, 2012) for best actress
16. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild, 2012) for best actress
17. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook, 2012) for best supporting actress
18. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013) for best supporting actor
19. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper, 2014) for best actor
20. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night, 2014) for best actress
21. Laura Dern (Wild, 2014) for best supporting actress
22. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years, 2015) for best actress
23. Tom Hardy (The Revenant, 2015) for best supporting actor
24. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight, 2015) for best supporting actor
25. Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals, 2016) for best supporting actor
26. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread, 2017) for best supporting actress
27. Yalitza Aparicio (Roma, 2018) for best actress
28. Marina de Tavira (Roma, 2018) for best supporting actress

Many of these performances came in late-year releases which probably were not seen by enough HFPA and SAG Awards nom-com voters (Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, Cooper in American Sniper, Hardy in The Revenant, Manville in Phantom Thread). Others might be described as smallish but memorable performances in major contenders behind which people began coalescing (i.e., Harden in Mystic River, Alda in The Aviator, Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook and Dern in Wild). And still others were beneficiaries of relentless championing by members of the industry and press that took time to — but ultimately did — resonate with voters (i.e., Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Bardem in Biutiful, Riva in Amour, Cotillard in Two Days, One Night and Aparicio and de Tavira for Roma).

Fun fact: Only one person has ever won an Oscar following Globe and SAG snubs: Marcia Gay Harden, for 2000's Pollock.

Meanwhile, during that same period, 38 performances that received both Globe and SAG noms were not subsequently nominated for an Oscar.

1. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House, 2001) for best supporting actor
2. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky, 2001) for best supporting actress
3. Cate Blanchett (Bandits, 2002) for best actress or best supporting actress*
4. Richard Gere (Chicago, 2002) for best actor
5. Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven, 2002) for best supporting actor
6. Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen, 2003) for best actress
7. Maria Bello (The Cooler, 2003) for best supporting actress
8. Paul Giamatti (Sideways, 2004) for best actor
9. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man, 2005) for best actor
10. Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha, 2005) for best actress
11. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed, 2006) for best actor or best supporting actor*
12. Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl, 2007) for best actor
13. Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart, 2007) for best actress
14. Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best actress
15. Mila Kunis (Black Swan, 2010) for best supporting actress
16. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar, 2011) for best actor
17. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin, 2011) for best actress
18. John Hawkes (The Sessions, 2012) for best actor
19. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone, 2012) for best actress
20. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy, 2012) for best supporting actress
21. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock, 2012) for best supporting actress
22. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips, 2013) for best actor
23. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks, 2013) for best actress
24. Daniel Bruhl (Rush, 2013) for best supporting actor
25. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler, 2014) for best actor
26. Jennifer Aniston (Cake, 2014) for best actress
27. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation, 2015) for best supporting actor
28. Michael Shannon (99 Homes, 2015) for best supporting actor
29. Helen Mirren (Trumbo, 2015) for best supporting actress
30. Amy Adams (Arrival, 2016) for best actress
31. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins, 2016) for best supporting actor
32. James Franco (The Disaster Artist) for best actor
33. Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) for best actress
34. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes) for best actor or best supporting actor*
35. Hong Chau (Downsizing) for best supporting actress
36. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman, 2018) for best actor
37. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns, 2018) for best actress
38. Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy, 2018) for best supporting actor

*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting

Many of these performances came in movies that were not widely seen by the general public and wound up getting drowned out of the awards discussion entirely (e.g., Christensen in Life as a House, Blanchett in Bandits, Hawkes in The Sessions, Aniston in Cake, Shannon in 99 Homes and Chalamet in Beautiful Boy). Some were given by a star whose work was watched before others' because of his or her track record but were then overshadowed as other performers' work was seen (e.g., Crowe in Cinderella Man, Winslet in Revolutionary Road, DiCaprio in J. Edgar). Others were given by a star who had rarely, if ever, been a part of a 'serious' movie, but was trying to be seen in a new light (e.g., Diaz in Vanilla Sky, Jolie in A Mighty Heart, Kunis in Black Swan and Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins). And still others were simply competing in a jam-packed category in which a few votes could have knocked them out of contention (e.g., Gere in Chicago, Giamatti in Sideways, DiCaprio in The Departed, Hanks in Captain Phillips and Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler).

So let's apply this to 2019.

The following 16 individuals are now nominated for both Globe and SAG awards:

1. Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) for best actor
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) for best actor
3. Adam Driver (Marriage Story) for best actor
4. Taron Egerton (Rocket Man) for best actor
5. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) for best actor
6. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet) for best actress
7. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) for best actress
8. Charlize Theron (Bombshell) for best actress
9. Renee Zellweger (Judy) for best actress
10. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) for best supporting actor
11. Al Pacino (The Irishman) for best supporting actor
12. Joe Pesci (The Irishman) for best supporting actor
13. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) for best supporting actor
14. Laura Dern (Marriage Story) for best supporting actress
15. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) for best supporting actress
16. Margot Robbie (Bombshell) for best supporting actress

The following 19 individuals received a Globe or SAG nom:

1. Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) for best actor
2. Daniel Craig (Knives Out) for best actor
3. Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit) for best actor
4. Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) for best actor
5. Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) for best actor
6. Awkwafina (The Farewell) for best actress

7. Cate Blanchett (Where'd You Go, Bernadette) for best actress
8. Ana de Armas (Knives Out) for best actress
9. Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart) for best actress
10. Lupita Nyong'o (Us) for best actress
11. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) for best actress
12. Emma Thompson (Late Night) for best actress
13. Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy) for best supporting actor
14. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) for best supporting actor
15. Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) for best supporting actress
16. Annette Bening (The Report) for best supporting actress
17. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) for best supporting actress
18. Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) for best supporting actress

*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting

Meanwhile, the following individuals thought by many pundits to be in serious awards contention received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom:

Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari) for best actor
Robert De Niro (The Irishman) for best actor
Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) for best actor
Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy) for best actor
Daniel Kaluuya (Queen & Slim) for best actor
Shia LaBeouf (The Peanut Butter Falcon) for best actor

George MacKay (1917) for best actor
Edward Norton (Motherless Brooklyn) for best actor
Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) for best actor

Matthew Rhys (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Mark Ruffalo (Dark Waters) for best actor

Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) for best actor
Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts) for best actress
Camila Morrone (Mickey and the Bear) for best actress
Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) for best actress
Valerie Pachner (A Hidden Life) for best actress
Mary Kay Place (Diane)
for best actress
Florence Pugh (Midsommar) for best actress
Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim) for best actress
Alfre Woodard (Clemency) for best actress
Alan Alda (Marriage Story) for best supporting actor
Sterling K. Brown (Waves) for best supporting actor

Bill Camp (Dark Waters) for best supporting actor
Dean-Charles Chapman (1917) for best supporting actor

Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)
for best supporting actor
Song Kang-ho (Parasite) for best supporting actor
Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) for best supporting actor
Tracy Letts (Ford v Ferrari)
for best supporting actor
John Lithgow (Bombshell) for best supporting actor
Sam Rockwell (Richard Jewell)
for best supporting actor
Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) for best supporting actor
Julia Butters (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) for best supporting actress
Penelope Cruz (Pain and Glory) for best supporting actress
Claire Duburcq (1917) for best supporting actress
Thomas McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit) for best supporting actress
Florence Pugh (Little Women) for best supporting actress
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite Is My Name) for best supporting actress
Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) for best supporting actress
Taylor Russell (Waves) for best supporting actress
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) for best
supporting actress
Lolo Spencer (Give Me Liberty) for best
supporting actress
Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell) for best supporting actress

Based on the last 18 years, it's reasonable to assume that at least one — and possibly as many as four — of the 15 performances that received Globe and SAG noms this year won't go on to receive an Oscar nom. And that at least one of the many performances that received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom will go on to receive an Oscar nom.

Which of the Globe-SAG nominees are most at risk of being bounced by the Academy? Possibilities are Bale, who is competing for votes in the lead actor category against his co-star Damon; and Erivo and Hanks, whose films have generated little awards heat apart from their performances.

And which of the SAG-Globe snubees could be revived by the Academy and slotted in their place? The likeliest bets are De Niro, for anchoring a film that is clearly popular across the board and is receiving the aforementioned sort of relentless championing from Netflix; Alda, for giving one of the aforementioned sort of smallish but memorable performances in a major contender; and MacKay and/or Chapman, whose performances came in a late-year release, which simply may not have been seen by enough HFPA and SAG Awards voters.

The Academy, of course, could — and almost certainly will — also add one or two of the folks who got a Golden Globe nom but not a SAG Award nom, or vice-versa. The most likely candidates are Banderas, Pryce, Awkwafina, Nyong'o, Ronan, Foxx, Hopkins and Johansson (for Jojo Rabbit).