Golden Globes: Who Will Win, Who Should Win (Analysis)

Les Miserables - Hugh Jackman - H 2012
Courtesy of Universal

This story first appeared in the Jan. 18 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine.

THR’s awards analyst Scott Feinberg predicts who will win at Sunday's Golden Globes, while chief film critic Todd McCarthy declaims who should win, and chief television critic Tim Goodman handicaps the TV races.

Best Film Drama
SHOULD WIN: Zero Dark Thirty -- Because of its urgent, bravura filmmaking.

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Best Film Drama Actress
WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
SHOULD WIN: Chastain -- The core of a laser-focused film.

Best Film Drama Actor
WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
SHOULD WIN: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master -- Creepy work.

Best Film Comedy/Musical
WILL WIN: Les Miserables
SHOULD WIN: Moonrise Kingdom -- A style like no other.

Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress
WILL WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
SHOULD WIN: Lawrence -- Electric -- and then some.

Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor
WILL WIN: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
SHOULD WIN: Jack Black, Bernie -- An unexpected tour de force.

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Best Film Supporting Actor
WILL WIN: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
SHOULD WIN: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master -- Masterly.

Best Film Supporting Actress
WILL WIN: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
SHOULD WIN: Amy Adams, The Master -- Lots beneath the surface.

Best Film Director
WILL WIN: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
SHOULD WIN: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty -- Her best work.

Best Film Screenplay
WILL WIN: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
SHOULD WIN: Tarantino -- Audacious and outrageous.

Best Animated Film
WILL WIN: Wreck-It Ralph
SHOULD WIN: Wreck-It Ralph -- Enormously clever and smart.

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Best Television Series, Drama
WILL WIN: Homeland
SHOULD WIN: Breaking Bad -- It’s actually not that close.

Best Television Actress, Drama
WILL WIN: Claire Danes, Homeland
SHOULD WIN: Danes -- She’s always good, and you know it.

Best Television Actor, Drama
WILL WIN: Damian Lewis, Homeland
SHOULD WIN: Mad Men's Jon Hamm -- Either one, or Breaking Bad's Bryan Cranston, works just fine.

Best Television Series, Comedy or Musical
WILL WIN: Episodes
SHOULD WIN: Girls -- Honestly, this should not be a contest.

Best Television Actress, Comedy or Musical
WILL WIN: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
SHOULD WIN: Girls' Lena Dunham -- But they’re all great, actually.

Best Television Actor, Comedy or Musical
WILL WIN: Don Cheadle, House of Lies
SHOULD WIN: Cheadle -- Another fine assemblage, but Cheadle’s a force of nature.