Oscars: Golden Globe and SAG Award Noms, Snubs Don't Completely Shape the Race

First Reformed-Ethan Hawke-Photofest-H 2018

In the wake of last Thursday's Golden Globe Award nominations and Wednesday's Screen Actors Guild Award nominations, it is tempting to assume that many names are now locked — in or out — for the still-to-come Academy Award nominations. Some performers — like First Reformed's Ethan Hawke, Hereditary's Toni Collette and Widows' Viola Davis — are being written off after being omitted from both lists, while others — particularly those who received both Globe and SAG mentions, including Can You Ever Forgive Me?'s Melissa McCarthy and BlacKkKlansman's Adam Driver — are being discussed as if their Oscar nominations are now guaranteed.

But not so fast.

The Academy doesn't even begin its nomination voting period until Jan. 7, and it then runs all the way through Jan. 14. A lot can still happen between now and then. Additionally, there are major differences — in terms of composition and inclination — between the groups that determine the noms for the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Oscars. Golden Globe noms are decided by roughly 90 Los Angeles-based journalists for foreign media outlets; SAG noms are determined by 2,500 randomly selected U.S.-based members of SAG-AFTRA, the world's largest union of actors; and Oscar noms reflect the tastes of more than 9,000 members of the Academy — an organization of people who work on movies in a host of capacities — from all over the world.

Because many — in fact, most — performances do receive Golden Globe and/or SAG Award noms en route to Oscar noms, there is an assumption that performances that do not snag Globe and/or SAG noms instantly fall out of the running for an Oscar nom, and that, conversely, performances that do earn SAG and/or Globe noms are assured Oscar noms. But a look back at the last 17 years does not entirely bear those assumptions out.

Since 2001, 26 of the 340 acting Oscar nominees — or 7.6 percent — received neither a Golden Globe nor a SAG Awards nom en route to the big show. The Oscar nominees who prevailed despite a cold shoulder from the Globes and SAG are:

1. Samantha Morton (In America, 2003) for best actress
2. Djimon Hounsou (In America, 2003) for best supporting actor
3. Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog, 2003) for best supporting actress
4. Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River, 2003) for best supporting actress
5. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby, 2004) for best actor
6. Alan Alda (The Aviator, 2004) for best supporting actor
7. William Hurt (A History of Violence, 2005) for best supporting actor
8. Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah, 2007) for best actor
9. Laura Linney (The Savages, 2007) for best actress
10. Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best supporting actor
11. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart, 2009) for best supporting actress
12. Javier Bardem (Biutiful, 2010) for best actor
13. Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 2011) for best actor
14. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 2011) for best supporting actor
15. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour, 2012) for best actress
16. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild, 2012) for best actress
17. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook, 2012) for best supporting actress
18. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013) for best supporting actor
19. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper, 2014) for best actor
20. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night, 2014) for best actress
21. Laura Dern (Wild, 2014) for best supporting actress
22. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years, 2015) for best actress
23. Tom Hardy (The Revenant, 2015) for best supporting actor
24. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight, 2015) for best supporting actor
25. Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals, 2016) for best supporting actor
26. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) for best supporting actress

Many of these performances came in late-year releases (Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, Cooper in American Sniper, Hardy in The Revenant, Manville in Phantom Thread), which probably were not seen by enough HFPA and SAG Awards nom-com voters. Others might be described as smallish performances in major contenders behind which people began coalescing (i.e., Harden in Mystic River, Alda in The Aviator, Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook and Dern in Wild). And still others were beneficiaries of relentless championing by members of the industry and press that took time to — but ultimately did — resonate with voters (i.e., Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Bardem in Biutiful, Riva in Amour and Cotillard in Two Days, One Night).

Fun fact: Only one person ever has won an Oscar following Globe and SAG snubs: Marcia Gay Harden, for 2000's Pollock.

Meanwhile, during that same period, 34 performances that received both Globe and SAG noms were not subsequently nominated for an Oscar.

1. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House, 2001) for best supporting actor
2. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky, 2001) for best supporting actress
3. Cate Blanchett (Bandits, 2002) for best actress or best supporting actress*
4. Richard Gere (Chicago, 2002) for best actor
5. Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven, 2002) for best supporting actor
6. Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen, 2003) for best actress
7. Maria Bello (The Cooler, 2003) for best supporting actress
8. Paul Giamatti (Sideways, 2004) for best actor
9. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man, 2005) for best actor
10. Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha, 2005) for best actress
11. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed, 2006) for best actor or best supporting actor*
12. Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl, 2007) for best actor
13. Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart, 2007) for best actress
14. Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best actress
15. Mila Kunis (Black Swan, 2010) for best supporting actress
16. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar, 2011) for best actor
17. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin, 2011) for best actress
18. John Hawkes (The Sessions, 2012) for best actor
19. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone, 2012) for best actress
20. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy, 2012) for best supporting actress
21. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock, 2012) for best supporting actress
22. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips, 2013) for best actor
23. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks, 2013) for best actress
24. Daniel Bruhl (Rush, 2013) for best supporting actor
25. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler, 2014) for best actor
26. Jennifer Aniston (Cake, 2014) for best actress
27. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation, 2015) for best supporting actor
28. Michael Shannon (99 Homes, 2015) for best supporting actor
29. Helen Mirren (Trumbo, 2015) for best supporting actress
30. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins, 2016) for best supporting actor
31. James Franco (The Disaster Artist) for best actor
32. Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) for best actress
33. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes) for best actor or best supporting actor*
34. Hong Chau (Downsizing) for best supporting actress

*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting

Many of these performances came in movies that were not widely seen by the general public (e.g., Christensen in Life as a House, Blanchett in Bandits, Hawkes in The Sessions, Aniston in Cake and Shannon in 99 Homes) and wound up getting drowned out of the awards discussion entirely. Some were given by a star whose work was watched before others' because of their track records but were then overshadowed as other performers' work was seen (e.g., Crowe in Cinderella Man, Winslet in Revolutionary Road, DiCaprio in J. Edgar). Others were given by a star who had rarely, if ever, been a part of a "serious" movie, but was trying to be seen in a new light (e.g., Diaz in Vanilla Sky, Jolie in A Mighty Heart, Kunis in Black Swan and Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins). And still others were simply competing in a jam-packed category in which a few votes could have knocked them out of contention (e.g., Gere in Chicago, Giamatti in Sideways, DiCaprio in The Departed, Hanks in Captain Phillips and Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler).

So let's apply this to 2018.

The following 17 individuals are now nominated for both Globe and SAG awards:

1. Christian Bale (Vice) for best actor
2. Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) for best actor
3. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) for best actor
4. Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) for best actor
5. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) for best actor
6. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) for best actress
7. Glenn Close (The Wife) for best actress
8. Olivia Colman (The Favourite) for best actress
9. Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) for best actress
10. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) for best actress
11. Mahershala Ali (Green Book) for best supporting actor
12. Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) for best supporting actor
13. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) for best supporting actor
14. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) for best supporting actor
15. Amy Adams (Vice) for best supporting actress
16. Emma Stone (The Favourite) for best supporting actress
17. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) for best supporting actress

The following 16 individuals received a Globe or SAG nom:

1. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate) for best actor
2. Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) for best actor
3. Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) for best actor
4. Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun) for best actor
5. John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie) for best actor
6. Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) for best actress
7. Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) for best actress
8. Rosamund Pike (A Private War) for best actress
9. Charlize Theron (Tully) for best actress
10. Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians) for best actress
11. Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born) for best supporting actor
12. Sam Rockwell (Vice) for best supporting actor
13. Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place) for best supporting actress
14. Claire Foy (First Man) for best supporting actress
15. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) for best supporting actress
16. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) for best supporting actress

And the following individuals received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom:

Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy) for best actor
Clint Eastwood (The Mule) for best actor
Ryan Gosling (First Man) for best actor
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) for best actor
Lucas Hedges (Ben Is Back) for best actor
Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) for best actor
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk) for best actor
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) for best actress
Toni Collette (Hereditary) for best actress
Viola Davis (Widows) for best actress
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life) for best actress
Regina Hall (Support the Girls) for best actress
Joanna Kulig (Cold War) for best actress
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk) for best actress
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife) for best actress
Julia Roberts (Ben Is Back) for best actress
Steve Carell (Vice) for best supporting actor
Robert Forster (What They Had) for best supporting actor
Paul Giamatti (Private Life) for best supporting actor
Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) for best supporting actor
Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk) for best supporting actor
Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) for best supporting actor
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place) for best supporting actor
Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite) for best supporting actor
Linda Cardellini (Green Book) for best supporting actress
Kayli Carter (Private Life) for best supporting actress
Marina de Tavira (Roma) for best supporting actress
Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) for best supporting actress
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie (Leave No Trace) for best supporting actress
Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) for best supporting actress
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns) for best supporting actress
Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians) for best supporting actress

*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting

Based on the last 17 years, it's reasonable to assume that at least one — and possibly as many as four — of the 17 performances that received Globe and SAG noms this year won't go on to receive an Oscar nom. And that at least one of the many performances that received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom will go on to receive an Oscar nom.

Which of the Globe-SAG nominees are most at risk of being bounced by the Academy? I would say Beautiful Boy's Chalamet, if only because his film has otherwise failed to gain much traction; and perhaps one or both of the men from BlacKkKlansman, Washington and Driver, as both are young up-and-comers in a film distinguished less by its acting than its story and craft (although its best ensemble SAG Award nom suggests its support may run deeper than I thought).

And which of the SAG-Globe snubees could be revived by the Academy and slotted in their place? I think the likeliest bets are women: Roma's Aparicio and de Tavira may benefit from their association with one of the year's top overall contenders, their unique personal narratives and Netflix's voracious support for their campaigns, while Hereditary's Collette, Widows' Davis and Private Life's Hahn have enthusiastic champions, as well.

The Academy, of course, could — and almost certainly will — also add one or two of the folks who got a Golden Globe nom but not a SAG Award nom, or vice-versa, the most likely candidates being Star Is Born's Elliott and Beale Street's King.