Oscars: Golden Globe and SAG Award Noms, Snubs Only Shape Race So Much

Some Oscar nom prospects — Michael Stuhlbarg ('Call Me by Your Name') and Tiffany Haddish ('Girls Trip') — have been written off after they were omitted from both lists, while others — Denzel Washington ('Roman J. Israel, Esq.') and Judi Dench ('Victoria & Abdul') — are being discussed as slam-dunks after being included on both. THR's awards columnist explains why such conclusions are premature.
Courtesy of Columbia Pictures (Washington), Focus Features (Dench), Sony Pictures Classics (Stuhlbarg), Universal Pictures (Haddish)
From left: Denzel Washington in 'Roman J. Israel, Esq.,' Judi Dench in 'Victoria & Abdul,' Michael Stuhlbarg in 'Call Me by Your Name,' Tiffany Haddish in 'Girls Trip'

In the wake of Monday's  Golden Globe Award nominations and Wednesday's Screen Actors Guild Award nominations, it is tempting to assume that many names are now locked — in or out — for the still-to-come Academy Award nominations. Some performers — like Call Me by Your Name's Michael Stuhlbarg and Girls Trip's Tiffany Haddish — have been virtually written off after being omitted from both lists, while others — particularly those who received both Globe and SAG noms, including Roman J. Israel, Esq.'s Denzel Washington and Victoria & Abdul's Judi Dench — are being discussed as if their Oscar nomination now is guaranteed.

But not so fast.

The Academy doesn't even begin its nomination voting period until Jan. 5, and it then runs all the way through Jan. 12. A lot can still happen between now and then. Additionally, there are major differences — in terms of composition and inclination — between the groups that determine the noms for the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Oscars. Golden Globe noms are decided by roughly 90 Los Angeles-based journalists for foreign media outlets; SAG noms are determined by 2,500 randomly selected U.S.-based members of SAG-AFTRA, the world's largest union of actors; and Oscar noms reflect the tastes of 8,427 members of the Academy — an organization of people who work on movies in a host of capacities — from all over the world.

Because many — in fact, most — performances do receive Golden Globe and/or SAG Award noms en route to Oscar noms, there is an assumption that performances that do not snag Globe and/or SAG noms instantly fall out of the running for an Oscar nom, and that, conversely, performances that do earn SAG and/or Globe noms are assured Oscar noms. But a look back at the last 16 years does not entirely bear those assumptions out.

Since 2001, 25 of the 320 acting Oscar nominees — or 7.8 percent — received neither a Golden Globe nor a SAG Awards nom en route to the big show. The Oscar nominees who prevailed despite a cold shoulder from the Globes and SAG are:

1. Samantha Morton (In America, 2003) for best actress
2. Djimon Hounsou (In America, 2003) for best supporting actor
3. Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog, 2003) for best supporting actress
4. Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River, 2003) for best supporting actress
5. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby, 2004) for best actor
6. Alan Alda (The Aviator, 2004) for best supporting actor
7. William Hurt (A History of Violence, 2005) for best supporting actor
8. Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah, 2007) for best actor
9. Laura Linney (The Savages, 2007) for best actress
10. Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best supporting actor
11. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart, 2009) for best supporting actress
12. Javier Bardem (Biutiful, 2010) for best actor
13. Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 2011) for best actor
14. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 2011) for best supporting actor
15. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour, 2012) for best actress
16. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild, 2012) for best actress
17. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook, 2012) for best supporting actress
18. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013) for best supporting actor
19. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper, 2014) for best actor
20. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night, 2014) for best actress
21. Laura Dern (Wild, 2014) for best supporting actress
22. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years, 2015) for best actress
23. Tom Hardy (The Revenant, 2015) for best supporting actor
24. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight, 2015) for best supporting actor
25. Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals, 2016) for best supporting actor

Many of these performances came in late-year releases (Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, Cooper in American Sniper, Hardy in The Revenant), which probably were not seen by HFPA and SAG Awards nom-com voters. Others might be described as a smallish performance in a major contender behind which people began coalescing (i.e., Harden in Mystic River, Alda in The Aviator, Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook and Dern in Wild). And still others were a beneficiary of relentless championing by members of the industry and press that took time to — but ultimately did — resonate with voters (i.e., Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Bardem in Biutiful, Riva in Amour and Cotillard in Two Days, One Night).

Fun fact: Only one person ever has won an Oscar following Globe and SAG snubs: Marcia Gay Harden, for 2000's Pollock.

Meanwhile, during that same period, 30 performances that received both Globe and SAG noms were not subsequently nominated for an Oscar.

1. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House, 2001) for best supporting actor
2. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky, 2001) for best supporting actress
3. Cate Blanchett (Bandits, 2002) for best actress or best supporting actress*
4. Richard Gere (Chicago, 2002) for best actor
5. Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven, 2002) for best supporting actor
6. Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen, 2003) for best actress
7. Maria Bello (The Cooler, 2003) for best supporting actress
8. Paul Giamatti (Sideways, 2004) for best actor
9. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man, 2005) for best actor
10. Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha, 2005) for best actress
11. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed, 2006) for best actor or best supporting actor*
12. Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl, 2007) for best actor
13. Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart, 2007) for best actress
14. Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best actress
15. Mila Kunis (Black Swan, 2010) for best supporting actress
16. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar, 2011) for best actor
17. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin, 2011) for best actress
18. John Hawkes (The Sessions, 2012) for best actor
19. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone, 2012) for best actress
20. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy, 2012) for best supporting actress
21. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock, 2012) for best supporting actress
22. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips, 2013) for best actor
23. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks, 2013) for best actress
24. Daniel Bruhl (Rush, 2013) for best supporting actor
25. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler, 2014) for best actor
26. Jennifer Aniston (Cake, 2014) for best actress
27. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation, 2015) for best supporting actor
28. Michael Shannon (99 Homes, 2015) for best supporting actor
29. Helen Mirren (Trumbo, 2015) for best supporting actress
30. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins, 2016) for best supporting actor

*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting

Many of these performances came in movies that were not widely seen by the general public (e.g. Christensen in Life as a House, Blanchett in Bandits, Hawkes in The Sessions, Aniston in Cake and Shannon in 99 Homes) and wound up getting drowned out of the awards discussion entirely. Some were given by a star whose work was watched before others' because of their track records but were then overshadowed as other performers' work was seen (e.g. Crowe in Cinderella Man, Winslet in Revolutionary Road, DiCaprio in J. Edgar). Others were given by a star who had rarely, if ever, been a part of a "serious" movie, but was trying to be seen in a new light (e.g., Diaz in Vanilla Sky, Jolie in A Mighty Heart, Kunis in Black Swan and Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins). And still others were simply competing in a jam-packed category in which a few votes could have knocked them out of contention (e.g. Gere in Chicago, Giamatti in Sideways, DiCaprio in The Departed, Hanks in Captain Phillips and Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler).

So let's apply this to 2017.

The following 18 individuals are now nominated for both Globe and SAG awards:

1. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name) for best actor
2. James Franco (The Disaster Artist) for best actor
3. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) for best actor
4. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) for best actor
5. Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) for best actor
6. Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul) for best actress
7. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water) for best actress
8. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) for best actress
9. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) for best actress
10. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) for best actress
11. Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes) for best actor or best supporting actor*
12. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) for best supporting actor
13. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) for best supporting actor
14. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) for best supporting actor
15. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) for best supporting actress
16. Hong Chau (Downsizing) for best supporting actress
17. Allison Janney (I, Tonya) for best supporting actress
18. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) for best supporting actress

The following 14 individuals received a Globe or SAG nom:

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) for best actor
2. Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver) for best actor
3. Tom Hanks (The Post) for best actor
4. Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman) for best actor
5. Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) for best actress
6. Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker) for best actress
7. Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) for best actress
8. Meryl Streep (The Post) for best actress
9. Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World) for best actress
10. Armie Hammer (Call Me by Your Name) for best supporting actor
11. Woody Harrelson (The Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) for best supporting actor
12. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World) for best supporting actor
13. Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) for best supporting actress
14. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) for best supporting actress

And the following individuals received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom:

Christian Bale (Hostiles) for best actor
Jamie Bell (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool) for best actor
Matt Damon (Downsizing) for best actor
Andrew Garfield (Breathe) for best actor
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger) for best actor
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick) for best actor
Robert Pattinson (Good Time) for best actor
Jeremy Renner (Wind River) for best actor
Andy Serkis (War for the Planet of the Apes) for best actor
Jacob Tremblay (Wonder) for best actor
Annette Bening (Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool) for best actress
Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman) for best actress
Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner) for best actress
Vicki Krieps (Phantom Thread) for best actress
Diane Kruger (In the Fade) for best actress
Jennifer Lawrence (Mother!) for best actress
Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project) for best actress
Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel) for best actress
Jim Belushi (Wonder Wheel) for best supporting actor
John Boyega (Detroit) for best supporting actor
Idris Elba (Molly's Game) for best supporting actor
Tracy Letts (Lady Bird) for best supporting actor
Bob Odenkirk (The Post) for best supporting actor
Ray Romano (The Big Sick) for best supporting actor
Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) for best supporting actor
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water) for best supporting actor
Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya) for best supporting actor
Patrick Stewart (Logan) for best supporting actor
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) for best supporting actor
Bradley Whitford (Get Out) for best supporting actor
Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) for best supporting actress
Catherine Keener (Get Out) for best supporting actress
Melissa Leo (Novitiate) for best supporting actress
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) for best supporting actress
Julianne Moore (Wonderstruck) for best supporting actress
Carey Mulligan (Mudbound) for best supporting actress
Julia Roberts (Wonder) for best supporting actress
Lois Smith (Marjorie Prime) for best supporting actress
Bria Vinaite (The Florida Project) for best supporting actress

*Globe nomination for lead; SAG nomination for supporting

Based on the last 16 years, it's reasonable to assume that at least one — and possibly as many as four — of the 18 performances that received Globe and SAG noms this year won't go on to receive an Oscar nom. And that at least one of the many performances that received neither a Globe nor a SAG nom will go on to receive an Oscar nom.

Which of the Globe-SAG nominees are most at risk of being bounced by the Academy? I would say Washington (a star whose work was watched before others' because of his track record but was then overshadowed by other performers' work); Dench and Carell (competing in a jam-packed category in which a few votes could have knocked them out of contention); and Blige (a star who has rarely, if ever, been a part of a "serious" movie, but is trying to be seen in a new light).

And which of the SAG-Globe snubees could be revived by the Academy and slotted in their place? I would argue in favor of Stuhlbarg (a smallish performance in a major contender behind which people are increasingly coalescing) and Haddish (a beneficiary of relentless championing by members of the industry and press that took time to — but ultimately did — resonate with voters).

The Academy, of course, could — and almost certainly will — also add one or two of the folks who got a Golden Globe nom but not a SAG Award nom, or vice-versa, the most likely candidates being the past winners Day-Lewis and Streep.