Oscars: What's the Impact of Noms or Snubs from SAG/Globes? (Analysis)

Michael Shannon in 99 Homes and Michael Keaton in Spotlight - H 2015
Courtesy of Broad Green Pictures; Open Road Films

Far too often, people forget the major distinctions — in terms of size, origin and background — between the groups that determine the nominations for the Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globe and Academy Awards. SAG noms are determined by 2,250 randomly selected, U.S.-based members of SAG-AFTRA; Golden Globe noms are determined by 82 non-American journalists; and Oscar noms are determined by the 6,261 voting members of the Academy, people from all over the world who actually make movies.

Because many — in fact, most — Oscar-nominated performances do receive SAG and/or Globe noms en route to their Oscar noms, there is an assumption that performances that do not snag SAG and/or Globe noms instantly fall out of the running for an Oscar nom, and that performances that do snag SAG and/or Globe noms are locks for Oscar noms. A look at the last 13 years of results from all three groups, though, does not bear this out entirely.

Since 2001, 21 of the 280 acting Oscar nominees — or 7.5 percent — received neither a SAG nor a Globe nom en route to the big show.

1. Samantha Morton (In America, 2003) for best actress
2. Djimon Hounsou (In America, 2003) for best supporting actor
3. Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog, 2003) for best supporting actress
4. Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River, 2003) for best supporting actress
5. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby, 2004) for best actor
6. Alan Alda (The Aviator, 2004) for best supporting actor
7. William Hurt (A History of Violence, 2005) for best supporting actor
8. Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah, 2007) for best actor
9. Laura Linney (The Savages, 2007) for best actress
10. Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best supporting actor
11. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart, 2009) for best supporting actress
12. Javier Bardem (Biutiful, 2010) for best actor
13. Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 2011) for best actor
14. Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, 2011) for best supporting actor
15. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour, 2012) for best actress
16. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild, 2012) for best actress
17. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook, 2012) for best supporting actress
18. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street, 2013) for best supporting actor
19. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper, 2014) for best actor
20. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night, 2014) for best actress
21. Laura Dern (Wild, 2014) for best supporting actress

Many of these performances came in late-year releases (i.e., Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street and Cooper in American Sniper), which probably prevented some SAG and Globes voters from seeing them. Others were smallish performances in big contenders (i.e., Harden in Mystic River, Alda in The Aviator, Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook and Dern in Wild) and may have picked up additional steam after the SAG and Globe noms were announced. And still others were the beneficiaries of relentless championing by members of the industry and press that finally resonated with voters (i.e., Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Bardem in Biutiful, Riva in Amour and Cotillard in Two Days, One Night).

Fun fact: Only one person ever has won an Oscar following SAG and Globe snubs: Marcia Gay Harden, for 2000's Pollock.

Meanwhile, during that same period, 26 performances — or 9.3 percent — that received both SAG and Globe noms were not subsequently nominated for an Oscar.

1. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House, 2001) for best supporting actor
2. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky, 2001) for best supporting actress
3. Cate Blanchett (Bandits, 2002) for best actress or best supporting actress*
4. Richard Gere (Chicago, 2002) for best actor
5. Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven, 2002) for best supporting actor
6. Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen, 2003) for best actress
7. Maria Bello (The Cooler, 2003) for best supporting actress
8. Paul Giamatti (Sideways, 2004) for best actor
9. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man, 2005) for best actor
10. Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha, 2005) for best actress
11. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed, 2006) for best actor or best supporting actor*
12. Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl, 2007) for best actor
13. Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart, 2007) for best actress
14. Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best actress
15. Mila Kunis (Black Swan, 2010) for best supporting actress
16. Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar, 2011) for best actor
17. Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin, 2011) for best actress
18. John Hawkes (The Sessions, 2012) for best actor
19. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone, 2012) for best actress
20. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy, 2012) for best actress
21. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock, 2012) for best supporting actress
22. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips, 2013) for best actor
23. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks, 2013) for best actress
24. Daniel Bruhl (Rush, 2013) for best supporting actor
25. Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler, 2014) for best actor
26. Jennifer Aniston (Cake, 2014) for best actress

*HFPA nominated for lead; SAG nominated for supporting

Many of these performances came in movies that were not widely seen (i.e., Christensen in Life as a House, Blanchett in Bandits, Hawkes in The Sessions and Aniston in Cake) and wound up getting drowned out of the awards discussion entirely. Others came from movie stars who had rarely done "serious movies" at that point in their careers but were trying to be seen in a new light (i.e., Diaz in Vanilla Sky, Jolie in A Mighty Heart and Kunis in Black Swan). And still others were simply in jam-packed categories in which a few votes could have knocked them out of contention (i.e. Gere in Chicago, Giamatti in Sideways, DiCaprio in The Departed, Hanks in Captain Phillips and Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler).

So let's apply this to 2015.

The following 15 individuals are now nominated for both SAG and Globe noms:

1. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) for best actor
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) for best actor
3. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) for best actor
4. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) for best actor
5. Cate Blanchett (Carol) for best actress
6. Brie Larson (Room) for best actress
7. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) for best actress
8. Christian Bale (The Big Short) for best supporting actor*
9. Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) for best supporting actor
10. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) for best supporting actor
11. Michael Shannon (99 Homes) for best supporting actor
12. Rooney Mara (Carol) for best supporting actress*
13. Helen Mirren (Trumbo) for best supporting actress
14. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) for best supporting actress*
15. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) for best supporting actress

The following 20 individuals received a SAG or Globe nom:

1. Steve Carell (The Big Short) for best actor
2. Matt Damon (The Martian) for best actor
3. Johnny Depp (Black Mass) for best actor
4. Al Pacino (Danny Collins) for best actor
5. Mark Ruffalo (Infinitely Polar Bear) for best actor
6. Will Smith (Concussion) for best actor
7. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) for best actress
8. Melissa McCarthy (Spy) for best actress
9. Helen Mirren (Woman in Gold) for best actress
10. Amy Schumer (Trainwreck) for best actress
11. Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back) for best actress
12. Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van) for best actress
13. Lily Tomlin (Grandma) for best actress
14. Paul Dano (Love & Mercy) for best supporting actor
15. Sylvester Stallone (Creed) for best supporting actor
16. Jacob Tremblay (Room) for best supporting actor
17. Jane Fonda (Youth) for best supporting actress
18. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) for best supporting actress
19. Rachel McAdams (Spotlight) for best supporting actress
20. Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina) for best supporting actress

And the following individuals received neither a SAG nor a Globe nom:

Michael Caine (Youth) for best actor
Tom Courtenay (45 Years) for best actor
Jake Gyllenhaal (Southpaw) for best actor
Tom Hanks (Bridge of Spies) for best actor
Samuel L. Jackson (The Hateful Eight) for best actor
Michael B. Jordan (Creed) for best actor
Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes) for best actor
Geza Rohrig (Son of Saul) for best actor
Cate Blanchett (Truth) for best actress
Emily Blunt (Sicario) for best actress
Blythe Danner (I'll See You in My Dreams) for best actress
Carey Mulligan (Suffragette) for best actress
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) for best actress
Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road) for best actress
Benicio Del Toro (Sicario) for best supporting actor
Joel Edgerton (Black Mass) for best supporting actor
Tom Hardy (The Revenant) for best supporting actor
Michael Keaton (Spotlight) for best supporting actor
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) for best supporting actor
Jason Segel (The End of the Tour) for best supporting actor
Joan Allen (Room) for best supporting actress
Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy) for best supporting actress
Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria) for best supporting actress
Mya Taylor (Tangerine) for best supporting actress
Julie Walters (Brooklyn) for best supporting actress

*HFPA nominated for lead; SAG nominated for supporting

On the basis of the last 14 years, the odds are that at least one — and possibly as many as four — of the 15 performances that received a SAG and Globe nom will not receive an Oscar nom and that at least one of the many performances that received neither a SAG nor a Globe nom will receive an Oscar nom.

Which of the 15 SAG-Globe nominees are most at risk of being bounced by the Academy? As Steve Jobs continues to fade from the forefront of the conversation, I'm guessing that Fassbender and/or Winslet could miss out. I think that Trumbo's Cranston and/or Mirren, who are competing in the same categories as those two, might also fall victim to people from later and greater releases. Also, it feels to me like it's increasingly rare to see a film produce only one major nom, which would suggest that Beasts of No Nation's Elba and/or 99 Homes' Shannon could be vulnerable. (Keep in mind that, because of category confusion, Bale and/or Vikander and/or Mara also are in danger.)

And which of the SAG-Globe snubees could be rescued by the Academy? 45 Years' Courtenay and, in particular, Rampling are excellent in — and have widely been championed for — a film that many voters still are catching up to. Mad Max's Theron seems to have some renewed momentum after her individual Critics' Choice nom and all of the love showered upon her film by that and various other precursor groups. And Sicario's Del Toro and Spotlight's Keaton and Ruffalo both have big champions, so I imagine that they stand a strong shot of surging back to life, as well.

A lot still can happen between nom and the Oscar nominations announcement on Jan. 14, so stay tuned!