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BULLSEYE, June 10: 'Super 8,' 'Bad Teacher,' 'Carlo,' 'Crowne,' More

Which movies are audiences actually going to see?



Much of Hollywood is eagerly waiting to see the mystery of J.J. Abrams' Super 8 revealed this weekend. Unfortunately for Paramount, the focus is not so much on just what the secret of the creature tearing up a small Ohio town is, but on whether J.J.'s sci-fi adventure produced by Steven Spielberg will underperform.

The only other wide release this weekend is Relativity Media's Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer. But Fox's X-Men: First Class, which opened to $55 million last weekend, is primed for strong holdover numbers. In the last week, activity around Super 8 has gone up, but the attention is skewing older and remains nearly devoid of female interest, which is never a good sign. And its overall commitment is well under where X-Men was the day before its release; X-Men's mid-week numbers have been good.

But when the smoke clears, I think J.J.'s homage to those wonderful Amblin films of three decades ago will come out on top.

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On the other hand, the kids comedy Judy Moody is scoring a mere 23 percent Want-to-See rating on Flixster in contrast to the 78 percent of Fox's family comedy Mr. Popper's Penguins, which hits theaters June 17. Warner Bros.' Green Lantern, also a June 17 opener, hasn't shown much growth in the past week.

For the June 24 weekend, Columbia's Bad Teacher is slowly inching in toward the bullseye, while Disney/Pixar's Cars 2 continues to sit right on the center like someone refusing to use his car for fear of losing a perfect parking space. Activity and interest are bound to grow huge in the next two weeks.

Five days later, on June 29, Paramount's Transformers: Dark of the Moon takes over the scene. Activity hasn't grown but intensity of commitment has deepened. (Check out director Michael Bay and James Cameron discussing the film's 3D use in this exclusive video.) July 1, Monte Carlo and Larry Crowne launch their counter-programming campaigns, with older women most keen thus far on the Tom Hanks-Julia Roberts comedy and young girls teeing up the Selena Gomez flick.

Here's Pamela McClintock's box office preview for the weekend for added analysis.