Feinberg Forecast: Final Emmy Nomination Projections

The Hollywood Reporter's awards expert locks in his picks for 17 categories.

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically) 
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Ozark (Netflix)
Severance
(Apple)
Squid Game
(Netflix)
Stranger Things
(Netflix)
Succession
(HBO)
This Is Us
(NBC)
Yellowstone (Paramount)

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Alternate
Euphoria
(HBO)

Potential Surprise
Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Winning Time (HBO)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Abbott Elementary
(ABC)
Atlanta
(FX)
Barry
(HBO)
Hacks (HBO Max)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Ted Lasso (Apple)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Alternate
Russian Doll (Netflix)

Potential Surprise
Black-ish (ABC)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Reservation Dogs (FX)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Dopesick
(Hulu)
The Dropout (Hulu)
Maid (Netflix)
The Staircase (HBO Max)
The White Lotus (HBO)

Alternate
Inventing Anna (Netflix)

Potential Surprise
Under the Banner of Heaven (FX on Hulu)

Shoulda Been a Contender
1883 (Paramount+)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Jason Bateman (Ozark) — podcast
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
Brian Cox (Succession) — podcast
Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game) — podcast
Adam Scott (Severance)
Jeremy Strong (Succession) — podcast

Alternate
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) — podcast

Potential Surprise
Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Jamie Dornan (The Tourist)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Juliette Lewis (Yellowjackets)
Laura Linney (Ozark)
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
Kelly Reilly (Yellowstone)
Zendaya (Euphoria) — podcast

Alternate
Britt Lower (Severance)

Potential Surprise
Tawny Cypress (Yellowjackets)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Katja Herbers (Evil)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Alan Ruck (Succession)
John Turturro (Severance) — podcast
Christopher Walken (Severance)
Oh Young-soo (Squid Game)

Alternate
Park Hae-soo (Squid Game) — podcast

Potential Surprise
David Harbour (Stranger Things)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Cole Hauser (Yellowstone)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Patricia Arquette (Severance)
Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)
Julia Garner (Ozark) — podcast
Jung Ho-yeon (Squid Game) — podcast
Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
Sadie Sink (Stranger Things)
J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
Sarah Snook (Succession)

Alternate
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul) — podcast

Potential Surprise
Winona Ryder (Stranger Things)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Maude Apatow (Euphoria)

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Bill Hader (Barry)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)

Alternate
Nicholas Hoult (The Great)

Potential Surprise
Ricky Gervais (After Life) — podcast

Shoulda Been a Contender
Sam Richardson (The Afterparty)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
Issa Rae (Insecure)
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) — podcast
Jean Smart (Hacks)

Alternate
Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll)

Potential Surprise
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — podcast

Shoulda Been a Contender
Elle Fanning (The Great) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks)
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Luke Kirby (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Henry Winkler (Barry) — podcast
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)

Alternate
Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)

Potential Surprise
Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Brian Tyree Henry (Atlanta)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Sarah Goldberg (Barry)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Yvonne Orji (Insecure)
Meg Stalter (Hacks)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)

Alternate
Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)

Potential Surprise
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Stephanie Hsu (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Colin Firth (The Staircase)
Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven) — podcast
Oscar Isaac (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast
Michael Keaton (Dopesick) — podcast
Jared Leto (WeCrashed) — podcast
Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy)

Alternate
Sam Elliott (1883) — podcast

Potential Surprise
Ben Foster (The Survivor)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Jon Bernthal (We Own This City)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Jessica Chastain (Scenes from a Marriage) — podcast
Julia Garner (Inventing Anna) — podcast
Lily James (Pam and Tommy) — podcast
Margaret Qualley (Maid) — podcast
Julia Roberts (Gaslit) — podcast
Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) — podcast

Alternate
Toni Collette (The Staircase)

Potential Surprise
Anne Hathaway (WeCrashed)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Isabel May (1883) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Naveen Andrews (The Dropout)
Murray Bartlett (The White Lotus)
Jake Lacy (The White Lotus)
Will Poulter (Dopesick)
Peter Sarsgaard (Dopesick)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Dopesick)

Alternate
Steve Zahn (The White Lotus)

Potential Surprise
Matthew Goode (The Offer)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Colton Ryan (The Girl from Plainville)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Connie Britton (The White Lotus)
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dopesick) — podcast
Andie MacDowell (Maid)
Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus)

Alternate
Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven)

Potential Surprise
Faith Hill (1883)

Shoulda Been a Contender
Dominique Fishback (The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
The Andy Warhol Diaries (Netflix)
The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)
jeen-yuhs (Netflix)
The New York Times Presents: Controlling Britney Spears
(FX)
We Need to Talk About Cosby
(Showtime)

Alternate
Music Box (HBO) — podcast (Bill Simmons)

Potential Surprise
Catch and Kill: The Podcast Tapes (HBO) — podcast (Ronan Farrow)

Shoulda Been a Contender
McCartney 3, 2, 1 (Hulu)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SPECIAL*

Projected Nominees (alphabetically)
Downfall (Netflix)
George Carlin’s American Dream (HBO) — podcast (Judd Apatow)
Lucy and Desi (Amazon)
The Tinder Swindler (Netflix)
We Feed People (Nat Geo) — podcast (José Andrés)

Alternate
Insecure: The End (HBO)

Potential Surprise
Sheryl (Showtime)

Shoulda Been a Contender
A Man Named Scott (Amazon)