From Pilot Season to Streaming Deals, a Top TV Agent Weighs In on the State of the Industry

Erin Junkin never anticipated working in entertainment. But 19 years after starting at Endeavor, she’s now the co-head of WME’s television department and the only woman in the industry to hold such a post.

Originally starting in the mailroom before working her way up through the ranks alongside WME’s Rick Rosen, Ari Greenburg, Ari Emanuel and Paul Haas, Junkin now has her finger on the pulse of the TV industry as she and Tom Wellington co-run the agency’s sprawling TV department.

Now, as the industry begins to emerge following a year of pandemic-related changes and a racial reckoning, Junkin sat down with THR via Zoom to discuss the state of broadcast as pilot season lurks around the corner, why span is the new sticking point in deals and what buyers really want.

Let’s start with broadcast. We’ve seen some pilot orders coming in early amid the larger shift to year-round development. At the same time, there’s chatter that a lot of writers aren’t interested in selling to broadcast anymore. How do you see the market for broadcast?

I don’t know that it’s a concerted decision to say, “I no longer want to sell to broadcast.” There’s been a shift in opportunity that led to more sales across all these different platforms. Broadcast is not the only destination now. And because broadcast still largely is on a specific timeline, the writers that are available to do that may be more limited. A lot of what’s happened with the broadcast business is less of a “I don’t want to work in broadcast,” and more of a “I want to think holistically about what idea I want to sell and how that fits in and when the best time to sell it may be.” That might be at a different time of the year. And they may not be available come broadcast season. That’s what we’re seeing. There’s so much opportunity that there’s a more limited pool of writers for broadcast.

How have you seen the shift to streaming affect broadcast deals?

Broadcast deals largely haven’t shifted, but the orders have. The money is not there necessarily in the same way that it was. You used to get a 22-episode order and your fee meant something. But the fees have not made the jumps, frankly, that I think that they need to make in terms of exec producer fees. We need to start to see that shift. Y: The Last Man [on FX on Hulu] is a good example. There’s been a decade of trying to make it work and yet the thing that ultimately [doomed it] was a finite period of time and how much time you have people on hold [after COVID delays]. Span in general is something that impacts these deals. And it also impacts creative ability because networks and streamers all want something on a timeline.

Are broadcast deals the same as they were pre-pandemic?

They’re largely the same. I haven’t seen an enormous shift in script fees. For a certain select group of writers, or potentially something that’s sought after, you see an increase in prices and deals. But for the most part, you see a very small percentage increase, and they’re largely the same.

Which is surprising considering the total volume of broadcast pilots was rapidly declining year-over-year pre-pandemic and now it’s fallen off even more. The days of broadcast networks buying 300 drama and comedy scripts combined are long gone —

So where’s that money going?

Right. If the number of scripts networks are buying has been dramatically reduced and pilots that they’re actually going to film is even smaller than that, where is that surplus money going? Is it going to COVID protocols?

You have to assume that some goes to COVID, but COVID isn’t the reason for that. Prior to COVID, there were less pilots being made. I don’t know where the money is going; it’s not like you saw a huge shift in putting more money into the writers’ pockets.

A few years ago, we were talking a lot about how stacking rights and exclusivity among talent were holding up deals. What’s the latest sticking point?

Span. With COVID and productions pushing and series taking as long [to make] as they are now, that’s a great deal point. A lot of buyers have started to embrace things like putting floors in deals. We’re having conversations about how important it is to try and have a floor in post because those are things that impact writers in the way that series are being made now. Take an EP fee times 10 episodes. And if those 10 episodes take you two years, what would have been great for 22 episodes in one year is no longer something that you’re able to make a living off of. If EP fees were jumping 50 percent, then it would be less of an issue. The amount of time that it takes to make these shows is what I mean by span. It’s ensuring that the time that’s spent making the series is financially allocated. And not just EP fees, but in terms of a weekly project goes on beyond a certain point in time so that somebody that’s created a show is never in a situation where they’re making weekly scale.

Do you expect broadcast pilot volume to return to pre-pandemic levels? There were 64 orders in 2019, which was down considerably from the previous high of 95 in 2014.

I don’t think it’ll return to the same volume — but I don’t think it should. The goal of the industry both on the creator side and on the buyer side is to make television. There were a lot of series that were not made from a whole lot of development. It’s very hard for one network to have that much market share on development because there are so many buyers now. To generate 100 scripts in August to all be delivered in a certain period of time when writers are in second and third and sometimes fourth position is very difficult.

That makes me think of the way that some of these companies are structured now. NBCUniversal now has a team with Susan Rovner overseeing NBC, Peacock, USA and Syfy, among other cable channels. John Landgraf programs for FX on Hulu as well as FX and FXX. Craig Erwich does ABC and Hulu. Is there a point coming where we’re going to see the larger media conglomerate develop a show and decide later where it lands? Look at The Lost Symbol, which was developed for NBC and picked up for Peacock.

We certainly haven’t shifted to it yet. I do think for the broadcast business to the extent there is a streaming platform within the conglomerate, I do think it can help the broadcast business. That Comcast example brings opportunity to the larger infrastructure. There have to be some niches of content. If you’re selling a project, you need some buckets to sell into. Both in how you market things and how you strategize about projects and how you support projects. So, an ABC show vs. a Hulu show may feel a little bit different. And eventually, yes, we may watch them all on the same platform. Infrastructure is important because you need to support these shows. And there’s a degree of curation.

Which outlet would you say is the hardest to make a deal with and why?

I don’t think there’s one outlet that’s the hardest to make a deal with; there are different challenging deal points at each place. There are some places where we’ve broken through on one deal aspect where we’re then trying to go in and maybe educate a different buyer that they’re doing it differently than somewhere else and that they need to be educated in the precedent that we have at another place.

For example?

Span and having a weekly flow in deals. For a long time, there were a few places that would acknowledge doing that. There were maybe one or two buyers that would put that in a deal. Over time, it’s evolved because they want to stay competitive. Now you’re seeing most places do that. Maybe one or two outliers are studios. It’s shifting and helping the marketplace and our ability to get better deals across the board.

Which buyer is easiest to sell to?

Apple is buyer-friendly. HBO has always been a buyer-friendly place. But if you have something that everybody wants, you have the ability to make a great deal anywhere. The marketplace is more important in terms of being able to get those deals. We’re out with pitches multiple times a week. It depends on the project itself. Is there a studio attached? Are you taking it on its own? It’s all about having an understanding of the marketplace as you’re making these deals and how you’re able to utilize that to make the fairest deal.

Speaking of packages, I’ve heard that there have been some surprisingly big ones featuring A-list actors that failed to find buyers. Has the market cooled? 

I don’t think there’s a cooling down of demand. A lot of buyers used up their budgets buying during the pandemic. And there’s a backlog of getting things into production and a lot of development that was bought pre-pandemic. I don’t think that there are many projects that are undeniable anymore. There was a period where having an A-list actor meant you were going to sell that project no matter what because it was a big thing to get somebody from the film business in television. Everybody is working in TV now and I think that’s what it is more than anything else.

How has the market for overall deals changed since Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy ignited a wave of nine-figure pacts?

There’s much more opportunity in the overall deal market. To make some of these deals, and to make more of them, the numbers are at a smaller range because it’s very hard to have a huge degree of volume for any one individual. Making deals and investing in writers to get a show and then to get their next show is smart on their part given how vertically integrated these conglomerates are, so to invest in having a relationship with the writer in that way is meaningful. Those deals need to be successful so that we get the next deals. That’s something that we talk about internally here a lot. You want to feel that you’re not just planting yourself at a home, but that you’re going to get your series made and have an opportunity to do that. It’s important that we invest in making sure that writers have output from those deals so that it stays the market for overalls stays healthy.

Are there examples of deals that you have seen that really haven’t borne fruit and that maybe hurt the market position vs. helped it remain healthy? Kenya Barris was prolific at Netflix and went elsewhere. Ryan Murphy has been prolific for Netflix but hasn’t delivered a commercial hit — and he just sold two more American Stories shows to Disney. Does he re-up at Netflix or go back to Disney?

Ryan’s had the ability to figure out how to sell to multiple places. Brands will always have opportunity, and certain writers have made themselves into brands. There will always be opportunity for certain names and investing in certain creators, but I’m seeing networks and studios renew fewer deals if they’re not fruitful. They want to see product. And there’s a threshold of financials there. The deals that are on the lower range, there’s more time. Television is a business that needs nurturing and to have a writer in a two- or three-year deal, it’s going to take a moment to get something on air. But if you’re able to show that you’re coming to the table with ideas and projects, buyers are investing further in trying to make those relationships work.

I’m hearing that the market for new voices — especially diverse writers — has exploded, regardless of the experience level. What are you seeing?

What you’re saying is in line with my experience, which is there’s a good marketplace right now for unique voices and content. It’s important in how we represent stories on television. It’s a good opportunity to diversify storytelling.

Have you been surprised by who can command what? I heard one example of a writer, with little to no experience, who scored a $1 million deal from a streamer.

No, I’m not. I’ve always thought that having a great play or a unique voice is worth something. You can’t create talent. Talent creates itself. And the revenue follows. If there’s an opportunity to be in business with somebody that’s a unique storyteller, you should invest in that and see where it goes. I’m not surprised by it because I’ve made deals like that myself.

You’re the only woman to head or co-head a TV department at all the agencies. How are you using your position to create change?

Having the opportunity to be a woman in these rooms is so meaningful. I’ve been at this company 19 years. I know how we can be better. There shouldn’t be one female head of a television department; there should be many. Our department is 50 percent female. We have a lot of underrepresented groups in our agent pool. So, we don’t have to wait to train the next generation. So often I hear, “There aren’t enough candidates” or, “Somebody is not ready to run something or be a part of a group.” I don’t believe in that. We have to start giving women opportunities earlier on. Tom Wellington, who’s my co-head and partner, it’s something we talk a lot about; it’s why we have a lot of excellent young women running our staff meetings. Because our belief is that we want to start supporting people and giving others the opportunity to lead in their own ways. It’s important to see yourself represented in these rooms and to feel that the person who runs your department understands you and what you’re going through in your personal life or how you might approach the job differently.

In terms of content, what do buyers want right now?

There’s a desire for more upbeat content because the world has been a dark place for the last couple of years. It’s largely about what people have been going through and the need to have some things that are just fun and refreshing. You hear so much, “I just want to sit down and enjoy television for a moment and not be pulled to a dark place.”

When you’re negotiating deals with streamers, what kind of internal data do you see?

We certainly don’t see enough [data]. I don’t know that the creators always see enough in terms of [show] performance, either. The larger industry as a whole needs a new metric system. Nielsen is no longer the place to go to see how series are performing. And there’s not one replacement for that. Because each of these buyers has their own internal system — which is a little bit unknown to us — it’s hard when you’re trying to get a show picked up, or you’re trying to have a conversation around other things with the show to not have a real understanding of the metrics. My hope is that we’ll find other metric systems to provide that information or that at least they’ll start sharing some degree of it because if it’s good information, it would be great to know about the performance of the series.

What’s the metric you wish streamers would share publicly that could impact deals?

Completion and how people are viewing. That has to be taken into account when you’re looking at performance on a series. Some people may watch three episodes at a time of a show and wait for it to air the next three episodes and want to view them as a whole. I do that sometimes if I really love a series and I don’t want it to end, even if the show is played weekly. We need to understand more about viewer habits as well because that all impacts completion and who’s actually watching these series because it’s just no longer done in the same way. It no longer should be that a show has a month or two to be successful because people are coming to series at different times.

Interview has been edited for length and clarity.