Feinberg Forecast: Updated Emmys Projections, Now Including Acting Categories

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards that precede the Emmys and the history of the Emmys itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
The Crown (Netflix)
Lovecraft Country (HBO)
The Mandalorian (Disney+)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
This Is Us (NBC)
Bridgerton (Netflix)
Pose (FX)
In Treatment (HBO)

Major Threats
The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+)
The Mosquito Coast (Apple TV+)
Ratched (Netflix)
Perry Mason (HBO)
P-Valley (Starz)
The Boys (Amazon)
Godfather of Harlem (Epix)
For All Mankind (Apple TV+)
We Are Who We Are (HBO)
Yellowstone (Paramount Network)

Possibilities
Industry (HBO)
Queen Sugar (OWN)
Snowfall (FX)
Away (Netflix)
City on a Hill (Showtime)
Evil (CBS)
For Life (ABC)
Shadow and Bone (Netflix)
Servant (Apple TV+)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)
Hacks (HBO Max)
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC)
Pen15 (Hulu)
Girls5Eva (Peacock)
Master of None (Netflix)

Major Threats
Cobra Kai (Netflix)
Black-ish (ABC)
Emily in Paris (Netflix)
Made for Love (HBO Max)
Mythic Quest (Apple TV+)
Young Rock (ABC)
Dickinson (Apple TV+)
Mom (CBS)
Home Economics (ABC)
Search Party (HBO Max)
Chad (TBS)

Possibilities
Love, Victor (Hulu)
Breeders (FX)
Rutherford Falls (Peacock)
Genera+ion (HBO Max)
The Unicorn (CBS)
Superstore (NBC)
The Politician (Netflix)
Shrill (Hulu)
The Conners (ABC)
Kenan (NBC)
Mr. Mayor (NBC)
Younger (Paramount+)
Saved by the Bell (Peacock)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Frontrunners
The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
Mare of Easttown (HBO)
The Underground Railroad (Amazon)
WandaVision (Disney+)
I May Destroy You (HBO)

Major Threats
Small Axe (Amazon)
The Undoing (HBO)
The Good Lord Bird (Showtime)
Halston (Netflix)
Genius: Aretha (NatGeo)
Fargo (FX)
Your Honor (Showtime)
A Teacher (FX on Hulu)

Possibilities
The Comey Rule (Showtime)
It’s a Sin (HBO Max)
The Third Day (HBO)
The Haunting of Bly Manor (Netflix)
Them (Amazon)
Dirty John: The Betty Broderick Story (Bravo)

*BEST TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Sylvie’s Love (Amazon)
Uncle Frank (Amazon)
Oslo (HBO)
Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia (Lifetime)
Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square (Netflix)

Major Threats
Unpregnant (HBO Max)
7500 (Amazon)
Doctor Who: Revolution of the Daleks (BBC)

Possibilities
Wendy Williams: The Movie (Lifetime)
Clouds (Disney+)
Safety (Disney+)
Godmothered (Disney+)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Frontrunners
Pretend It’s a City (Netflix)
Allen vs. Farrow (HBO)
City So Real (NatGeo)
1971: The Year That Music Changed Everything (Apple TV+)
High on the Hog (Netflix)

Major Threats
American Masters (PBS)
I’ll Be Gone in the Dark (HBO)
30 for 30 (ESPN)
The Vow (HBO)
Pride (FX)
Murder on Middle Beach (HBO)
Love Fraud (Showtime)
Q: Into the Storm (HBO)
Sasquatch (Hulu)
Secrets of the Whales (NatGeo)
Seduced: Inside the NXIVM Cult (Starz)

Possibilities
The Lady and the Dale (HBO)
Dear… (Apple TV+)
Immigration Nation (Netflix)
Lennox Hill (Netflix)
The Me You Can’t See (Apple TV+)
Helter Skelter: An American Myth (Epix)
Crime Scene: The Vanishing at the Cecil Hotel (Netflix)
Equal (HBO Max)
A Wilderness of Error (FX)
Expecting Amy (HBO Max)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Josh O’Connor (The Crown)
Rege-Jean Page (Bridgerton)
Jonathan Majors (Lovecraft Country)
Billy Porter (Pose) — podcast
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) — podcast
Pedro Pascal (The Mandalorian)

Major Threats
Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason)
Justin Theroux (The Mosquito Coast)
Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) — podcast
Joseph Fiennes (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Anthony Mackie (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier)
Sebastian Stan (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier)
Nicco Annan (P-Valley)
Forest Whitaker (Godfather of Harlem)
Finn Wittrock (Ratched)
Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)

Possibilities
Antony Starr (The Boys)
Karl Urban (The Boys)
Jack Quaid (The Boys)
Jack Dylan Grazer (We Are Who We Are)
Toby Kebbell (Servant)
Damson Idris (Snowfall)
Joel Kinnaman (For All Mankind)
Christopher Meloni (Law and Order: Organized Crime)
Kevin Bacon (City on a Hill)
Aldis Hodge (City on a Hill)
Daveed Diggs (Snowpiercer)
Mike Colter (Evil)
Nicholas Pinnock (For Life)
John Stamos (Big Shot)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Emma Corrin (The Crown)
Uzo Aduba (In Treatment)
Jurnee Smollett (Lovecraft Country)
Olivia Colman (The Crown) — podcast
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale) — podcast
Phoebe Dynevor (Bridgerton)

Major Threats
Mj Rodriguez (Pose)
Sarah Paulson (Ratched)
Mandy Moore (This Is Us) — podcast
Brandee Evans (P-Valley)
Aya Cash (The Boys)
Erin Moriarty (The Boys)
Melissa George (The Mosquito Coast)

Possibilities
Myha’la Herrold (Industry)
Jessie Mei Li (Shadow and Bone)
Lauren Ambrose (Servant)
Niecy Nash (Claws)
Jennifer Connelly (Snowpiercer)
Hilary Swank (Away)
Queen Latifah (The Equalizer)
Katey Sagal (Rebel)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Michael Kenneth Williams (Lovecraft Country)
Tobias Menzies (The Crown)
Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid’s Tale)
John Benjamin Hickey (In Treatment)
John Lithgow (Perry Mason)
Jonathan Bailey (Bridgerton)
Anthony Ramos (In Treatment)
Joel Kinnaman (In Treatment)

Major Threats
Chris Sullivan (This Is Us)
Justin Hartley (This Is Us)
Wyatt Russell (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier)
Daniel Bruhl (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier)
Rupert Grint (Servant)
Ken Leung (Industry)

Possibilities
Paul Sorvino (Godfather of Harlem)
O.T. Fagbenle (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Max Minghella (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Ryan Jamaal Swain (Pose)
Ben Barnes (Shadow and Bone)
Richard Cabral (Mayans M.C.)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Frontrunners
Gillian Anderson (The Crown)
Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown)
Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Ann Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Samira Wiley (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Wunmi Mosaku (Lovecraft Country)
Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton)
Adjoa Andoh (Bridgerton)

Major Threats
Aunjanue Ellis (Lovecraft Country) — podcast
Claudia Jessie (Bridgerton)
Polly Walker (Bridgerton)
Cynthia Nixon (Ratched)
Tatiana Maslany (Perry Mason)
Susan Kelechi Watson (This Is Us)
Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)
Emerald Fennell (The Crown)
Erin Doherty (The Crown)
Marion Bailey (The Crown)

Possibilities
Emily VanCamp (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier)
Chloe Sevigny (We Are Who We Are)
Judy Davis (Ratched)
Sharon Stone (Ratched)
Jamie Chung (Lovecraft Country)
Juliet Rylance (Perry Mason)
Madeline Brewer (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Indya Moore (Pose)
Dominique Jackson (Pose)
Abbey Lee (Lovecraft Country)
Alison Wright (Snowpiercer)

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
Kenan Thompson (Kenan) — podcast
Ted Danson (Mr. Mayor) — podcast
Ralph Macchio (Cobra Kai)

Major Threats
William Zabka (Cobra Kai)
Billy Magnussen (Made for Love)
Dwayne Johnson (Young Rock)
Rob McElhenney (Mythic Quest)
Michael Cimino (Love, Victor)
Martin Freeman (Breeders)
William H. Macy (Shameless)

Possibilities
Ed Helms (Rutherford Falls)
Topher Grace (Home Economics)
Lamone Morris (Woke)
Walton Goggins (The Unicorn)
Ben Platt (The Politician) — podcast
John Goodman (The Conners)
Ben Feldman (Superstore)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Jean Smart (Hacks)
Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
Maya Erskine (Pen15)
Anna Konkle (Pen15)
Jane Levy (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist) — podcast
Renee Elise Goldsberry (Girls5Eva)

Major Threats
Lena Waithe (Master of None) — podcast
Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish) — podcast
Cristin Milioti (Made for Love)
Allison Janney (Mom) — podcast
Sara Bareilles (Girls5Eva)
Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show) — podcast
Lily Collins (Emily in Paris) — podcast
Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson) — podcast
Ziwe Fumudoh (Ziwe)
Victoria Pedretti (The Haunting of Bly Manor)

Possibilities
Daisy Haggard (Breeders)
Jana Schmieding (Rutherford Falls)
Nasim Pedrad (Chad)
Lauren Ash (Superstore)
Charlotte Nicdao (Mythic Quest)
Sara Gilbert (The Conners)
Alia Shawkat (Search Party)
Aidy Bryant (Shrill) — podcast
Sutton Foster (Younger)
Gwyneth Paltrow (The Politician)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Brendan Hunt (Ted Lasso)
Nick Mohammed (Ted Lasso)
Alex Newell (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist)
Ray Romano (Made for Love)
Paul Reiser (The Kominsky Method)
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)

Major Threats
Martin Kove (Cobra Kai)
Laurence Fishburne (black-ish)
Pete Davidson (Saturday Night Live)
Beck Bennett (Saturday Night Live)
Jeremy Swift (Ted Lasso)
Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso)
Michael Huisman (The Flight Attendant)
Carl Clemons-Hopkins (Hacks)
Danny Pudi (Mythic Quest)
William Fichtner (Mom)
Dan Bakkedahl (Made for Love)

Possibilities
Don Johnson (Kenan)
Chris Redd (Kenan)
Skylar Astin (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist)
John Clarence Stewart (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist)
Michael Che (Saturday Night Live)
Colin Jost (Saturday Night Live)
Justice Smith (Genera+ion)
Uly Schlesinger (Genera+ion)
T.R. Knight (The Flight Attendant)
F. Murray Abraham (Mythic Quest)
Nico Santos (Superstore)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Frontrunners
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live)
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
Paula Pell (Girls5Eva)
Busy Philipps (Girls5Eva)
Cecily Strong (Saturday Night Live)
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Kathleen Turner (The Kominsky Method)

Major Threats
Naomie Ackie (Master of None)
Chloe Fineman (Saturday Night Live)
Aidy Bryant (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Kaitlin Olson (Hacks)
Rosie Perez (The Flight Attendant)
Zosia Mamet (The Flight Attendant)
Michelle Gomez (The Flight Attendant)
Mary Steenburgen (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist)
Jaime Pressly (Mom)
Noma Dumezweni (Made for Love)
Martha Plimpton (Genera+tion)

Possibilities
Lisa Edelstein (The Kominsky Method)
Sarah Baker (The Kominsky Method)
Megan Stalter (Hacks)
Ashley Park (Emily in Paris)
Laurie Metcalf (The Conners)
Lecy Goranson (The Conners)
Bette Midler (The Politician)
Judith Light (The Politician) — podcast
Holly Hunter (Mr. Mayor)
Jane Krakowski (Dickinson)
Jessie Ennis (Mythic Quest)
Hilary Duff (Younger)
Molly Bernard (Younger)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Ethan Hawke (The Good Lord Bird) — podcast
Paul Bettany (WandaVision)
Hugh Grant (The Undoing) — podcast
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton) — podcast
Leslie Odom, Jr. (Hamilton) — podcast

Major Threats
Joel Edgerton (The Underground Railroad)
Ewan McGregor (Halston)
Jeff Daniels (The Comey Rule) — podcast
Bryan Cranston (Your Honor) — podcast
Chris Rock (Fargo)
Jude Law (The Third Day)
Paul Bettany (Uncle Frank)

Possibilities
Nick Robinson (A Teacher)
Andrew Scott (Oslo)
Olly Alexander (It’s a Sin)
Alexander Skarsgard (The Stand)
James Marsden (The Stand)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (7500)
Ashley Thomas (Them)
Nnamdi Asomugha (Sylvie’s Love)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Anya Taylor-Joy (The Queen’s Gambit) — podcast
Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown) — podcast
Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You)
Thuso Mbedu (The Underground Railroad)
Elizabeth Olsen (WandaVision) — podcast

Major Threats
Nicole Kidman (The Undoing) — podcast
Cynthia Erivo (Genius: Aretha)
Kate Mara (A Teacher)
Danielle Brooks (Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia)
Christine Baranski (Christmas on the Square)
Tessa Thompson (Sylvie’s Love)
Dakota Fanning (The Alienist)
Ruth Wilson (Oslo)
E’myri Crutchfield (Fargo)

Possibilities
Bette Midler (Coastal Elites)
Jodie Whittaker (Doctor Who)
Julia Goldani Telles (The Girlfriend Experience)
Adam Peet (Dirty John)
Naomie Harris (The Third Day) — podcast
Dolly Parton (Christmas on the Square) — podcast
Haley Lu Richardson (Unpregnant)
Deborah Ayorinde (Them)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
John Boyega (Small Axe) — podcast
Bill Camp (The Queen’s Gambit)
Daveed Diggs (Hamilton)
Donald Sutherland (The Undoing)
Chase W. Dillon (The Underground Railroad)

Major Threats
Evan Peters (Mare of Easttown)
Jonathan Groff (Hamilton)
Christopher Jackson (Hamilton)
William Jackson Harper (The Underground Railroad)
Aaron Pierre (The Underground Railroad)
Paapa Essiedu (I May Destroy You)
Shaun Parkes (Small Axe)
Malachi Kirby (Small Axe)
Micheal Ward (Small Axe)
Glynn Turman (Fargo)
Brendan Gleeson (The Comey Rule)
Joshua Caleb Johnson (The Good Lord Bird)
Daveed Diggs (The Good Lord Bird)
Thomas Brodie-Sangster (The Queen’s Gambit)
Harry Melling (The Queen’s Gambit)

Possibilities
Guy Pearce (Mare of Easttown)
Courtney B. Vance (Genius: Aretha)
David Cross (Genius: Aretha)
Neil Patrick Harris (It’s a Sin)
Callum Scott Howells (It’s a Sin)
Jason Schwartzman (Fargo)
Ben Whishaw (Fargo)
Paddy Considine (The Third Day)
Christian Slater (Dirty John: The Betty Broderick Story)
Rory Culkin (Halston)
Bill Pullman (Halston)
David Cross (Genius: Aretha)
Peter Macdissi (Uncle Frank)
Jovan Adepo (The Stand)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Frontrunners
Kathryn Hahn (WandaVision)
Letitia Wright (Small Axe)
Marielle Heller (The Queen’s Gambit)
Jean Smart (Mare of Easttown)
Julianne Nicholson (Mare of Easttown)

Major Threats
Weruche Opia (I May Destroy You)
Renee Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton)
Phillipa Soo (Hamilton)
Krysta Rodriguez (Halston)
Sheila Atim (The Underground Railroad)
Moses Ingram (The Queen’s Gambit)
Teyonah Parris (WandaVision)
Holly Hunter (The Comey Rule)
Amarah-Jae St. Aubyn (Small Axe)

Possibilities
Margo Martindale (Uncle Frank)
Emily Watson (The Third Day)
T’Nia Miller (The Haunting of Bly Manor)
Jessie Buckley (Fargo)
Lydia West (It’s a Sin)
Keeley Hawes (It’s a Sin)
Lily Rabe (The Underground Railroad)
Noma Dumezweni (The Undoing)
Helen Mirren (Solos) — podcast