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With so many newcomers in the mix, this is the toughest year to predict the Emmys in quite a long time … here’s some last-minute thoughts…
Drama series: This category could all come down to what Emmy voters thought of the ending of “Lost.” Some are betting the Academy’s traditional side will love “The Good Wife.” While “Dexter” and “Breaking Bad” both had fully deserving outstanding seasons last year. Yet “Mad Men” could easily be like the TV Academy’s “Amazing Race,” a permanent embrace that no show can come between. I’d bet on “Mad Men.”
Comedy series: Everybody I’ve spoken to thinks ‘Modern Family’ will win. So … okay … I’m picking ‘Glee.’ Yes, ABC’s hit is more firmly in the Academy’s comfort zone, and lord knows they love giving Emmys to shows they can relate to (AMC’s “Mad Men” and NBC’s “30 Rock” — two shows about working in the media in Manhattan). I watch “Modern Family” and I think of well-to-do entertainment industry families that live in Los Angeles. But Fox successfully launching a comedy musical into primetime is a man-on-the-moon-level accomplishment. Besides, can a new show rack up 19 Emmy nominations and not be considered the best series in its class?
Drama actor: Tough category. John Lithgow’s win proves that Emmy voters are at least watching “Dexter.” This feels like Michael C. Hall’s year. But Bryan Cranston gave a rock star performance once again on “Breaking Bad” and Hugh Laurie is long overdue.
Comedy actor: Tony Shaloub has won three times, Alec Baldwin has won twice. All critics like Jim Parsons better, but I’m not yet convinced that Emmy voters watch “Big Bang Theory.” I’d say Shaloub for his final episode performance.
Drama actress: Julianna Margulies.
Comedy actress: It feels like Toni Collette vs. Edie Falco. The latter’s performance is more like a drama than a comedy, but will voters care? I’d bet on Collette winning a second time.
Reality competition: “Amazing Race.” Eight times in a row? I know. “American Idol” could upset for its Simon Cowell send off. But this wasn’t a great “Idol” year otherwise and those crafty “Race” producers staged a reenactment of a World War I battle in France — total Emmy-bait.
Outstanding variety show: This one is very tricky. All things being equal, one would bet on “The Daily Show” for the eighth year in a row. Some are citing “The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien” — not because they think the show was consistently better, but because of industry insiders wanting to embarrass NBC for its handling of its late-night shakeup. That feels like overthinking to me, not to mention pretty cynical (O’Brien’s least favorite quality, you know). I’m going to say “Daily Show.”
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